Locks
NBA - Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110): 8:00 PM on ABC
Ayton has shown throughout this playoff run that he is for real as an interior defender, and tonight I expect him to defend the paint again. Keeping Ayton inside for rim protection allows him to get more opportunities for rebounds and if Giannis Antetokounmpo somehow does play, it actually keeps Ayton in the paint even more in order to stop him.
It’s pretty hard to give a pick for a game where we don’t know if a team's best player is playing. But in the games that have remained competitive so far in this playoff run, Ayton has pulled down at least 11 rebounds and against the weaker Brook Lopez and the smaller P.J. Tucker, so I expect Ayton to get more than his fair share of rebounds tonight.
Conditional Lock: I love the under on total threes made in this game at 25.5 if Giannis plays. He takes so many shots away from 3-point shooters and Phoenix does a great job of taking away the 3-point line in the first place. If he doesn’t play it could be Milwaukee's only chance to make a bunch of threes. For that reason, I’m making it conditional on whether or not Giannis plays. If he plays, take the prop under. I would stay away if he doesn't.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 320-221 ATS (+84 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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