Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/29

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports MW

Yesterday’s game between these teams notwithstanding, plenty of runs should be expected today. But I think no matter how the game plays out from a side and total perspective, the Cubs will get theirs at the plate. This red-hot lineup should feast on the remains of the once-great Adam Wainwright, as he looks more than used up at this point.

Wainwright is at his worst at home, posting an 8.65 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, and .385 average allowed in Busch Stadium. Plus the Cubs hit him well, with a cumulative .310 average and .859 OPS. It’s a shame Chicago is tearing down this roster because they’re hitting really well, going 10-4 over this total since the All-Star break while averaging 7.1 runs per game. I think they keep it going today against such a struggling starter and unimpressive bullpen.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/LA Dodgers Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

I’m going after the over again between these teams, as tonight’s starting pitcher matchup is even more volatile than yesterday. With Luke Weaver going for Cincinnati, you just have to expect runs as he’s compiled a 9.41 ERA in June and July. It’s not surprising that his starts in those months have gone 6-3 over this high total while averaging 14.4 runs.

Included in there is a start against these Dodgers where he was roughed up for 7 runs in a 9-8 slugfest. I wouldn’t rule out a similar kind of game here with Emmet Sheehan starting for LA, as the rookie righty has been knocked around in his past 3 starts and is showing issues with walks. This Reds lineup is too good not to jump all over Sheehan and the messy Dodger bullpen, and combined with Weaver’s issues should result in another slugfest tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1424-1256 ATS (+72.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.