Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/28

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-115): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

Philadelphia comes into this intrastate series with some solid momentum, having taken 2 of 3 from the Atlanta Braves. They should continue that against the Pirates, a struggling team that has packed it in for this season and is likely looking to sell at the trade deadline. Pittsburgh has been bad in this spot all season, owning the worst average margin and 5th-worst plus/minus to the run line when they’re underdogs.

Things tend to go bad in a hurry for the Pirates from game to game and likely will again with another gas can taking the mound for them. Zach Thompson had a good two-month stretch, but the early season version has shown back up. A Phillies lineup that jumped all over much better Braves pitching should have an easy time today. I also see Zack Wheeler shutting down a Pirates team that really struggles against right-handed pitching, so that should earn Philly an easy win in this one.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Guardians ML @ Boston Red Sox (-115): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

Speaking of teams that appear ready to sell off at the deadline, Boston’s 7-19 run lately has turned them into a team likely to call it quits on competing this year. That has to further dampen the clubhouse mood, and combined with their injuries and struggles, makes for a great team to fade. Being able to do so with an opponent in Cleveland who still has postseason aspirations, at this cheap of a price no less, seems like a bargain.

It gets even better knowing that the Guardians get another start from Triston McKenzie tonight. The righty has been nothing short of dominant lately, posting a 0.34 ERA in July, and should extend Boston’s recent woes at the plate. And Cleveland should do damage against Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford. He struggles most against left-handed bats, which are the best hitters in Cleveland’s lineup. That should be enough for them to secure the win here with their hottest starter taking the mound.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 817-684 ATS (+76.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.