Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/27

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/NY Mets Over 7.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This total very obviously reflects Max Scherzer's presence on the mound for the Mets. Since returning from the injured list this month, Scherzer’s starts have averaged only 4.5 runs per game, so that trend has a big impact here. But he’s been tagged for some runs in his past few starts, all against lineups nowhere near as formidable as the Yankees. They have a decent history against Mad Max as well, combining for a .265 average and .752 OPS which aren’t exactly Scherzer-like numbers.

So if the Yankees can get a couple of runs in, then what this total doesn’t seem to reflect should take care of the rest. That would be Domingo German starting out of necessity again for a banged-up Yankee rotation. His previous start was a disaster, and while he hasn’t seen much of the Mets roster, they do hit him hard, combining for a 1.100 OPS. There’s a big wind blowing straight out of Citi Field tonight, and the ball seemed to be jumping in last night’s game, so expect enough runs to get over this low total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 817-683 ATS (+76.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.