Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/26

Locks

MLB - Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on ESPN

Two of the top four teams in average and OPS getting together in a small ballpark just screams high scoring game, but I want to isolate the Toronto Blue Jays here because of the matchup.

With the Boston Red Sox rolling out Nick Pivetta for his fourth start against the Jays already this season, I see them being able to score at will here. While the Red Sox might be 2-1 in Pivetta’s starts against Toronto, he has definitely struggled to contain their elite offense with a 7.56 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in those starts.

The Toronto lineup has a career .359 average and 1.053 OPS against Pivetta and now get their second run at him in Fenway where his ERA, WHIP, and on-base average are all considerably worse. Toronto has averaged 5.9 runs per game against Boston this season including 6.5 at Fenway. With Pivetta facing a hot Jays lineup that knows how to hit him, I think they clear this total once again.

MLB - Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+125) @ Kansas City Royals: 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

The Kansas City Royals might be 6-2 in the second half of the season so far, but they’ve yet to play a team I truly respect like the Chicago White Sox, plus there’s a strange home/road split between these teams that favors Chicago here.

First, let’s not forget that the Royals closed the first half of the season on a 7-27 run where 18 of those 27 losses were by two-plus runs. In fact, Kansas City holds the 5th-worst margin against the run line in baseball so they’re used to getting blown out. They’re also used to getting blown out at home by the White Sox, 0-3 to the run line this season with a minus-17 run differential.

That contrasts sharply to a 3-2 run line record and minus-4 differential playing at Chicago. Royals starter Mike Minor knows the feeling well as he’s 2-0 on the South Side this season with a 1.64 ERA, but got blown out 9-3 in his only home start against the White Sox. Dallas Keuchel makes his first start of the year against K.C. tonight but has excellent career marks of a .209 average and .503 OPS allowed versus their lineup.

I love the plus-juice return on this bet, and I’m confident that the Royals come back to earth tonight against a team that has their number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 332-233 ATS (+84 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.