Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/25

Locks

No locks today.

Degenerates

MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates/San Francisco Giants Over 7.5 (-110): 3:05 PM CT on NBCS-BA

The San Francisco Giants find themselves in a strange slump, losing two straight to the putrid Pittsburgh Pirates after looking so good in Los Angeles during the week. A simple cure for that can be facing Pirates starter JT Brubaker who is having a July to forget, with a 9.20 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his 3 starts this month. He also has a 5.33 road ERA and is much more prone to giving up the long ball away from home.

This Giants team that’s 2nd in MLB with 147 home runs should capitalize, especially with a big wind blowing out to left today.

However, the Pirates seem to be figuring out a few things at the plate recently, averaging 5.5 runs per game over their last 10 contests. Alex Wood has been solid for San Fran, but you’re not asking Pittsburgh to contribute all that much because the Giants should score plenty against Brubaker. This low of a total with the wind as it is, plus the Giants looking to rebound against a bad pitcher, and the Pirates being solid at the dish lately has me really liking the over here.

MLB - Colorado Rockies ML (+170) @ L.A. Dodgers: 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network

It’s not often that I fade the Los Angeles Dodgers, but there’s something fishy about this line and this spot that has me liking the Colorado Rockies here. The team with the fewest road wins in baseball should be a bigger dog here than they are, telling me the books are preparing for a Rockies win.

It makes sense. Injuries to star players are stacking up for the Dodgers, the bullpen is overworked and losing games for them, and they’re only 4-5 after the All-Star break with two of those losses to this Rockies team. The Dodgers are also starting their top pitching prospect Josiah Gray today, and he’ll be on an innings/pitches limit, putting more work on that struggling bullpen.

They’re also facing one of the more trustworthy starters for Colorado in Jon Gray, owner of a 3.38 ERA against L.A. this season and the Dodgers only have a plus-two run differential in his 3 starts against them. The +1.5 run line carries a little too much juice for me at -125 although it’s certainly an option if you want insurance in what should be a close game, but I’ll take a shot at the bigger return and look for a surprise Rockies win.

Tiny Nick is 332-233 ATS (+84 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.