Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network
Longtime sports bettors have all heard of a concept called the “Malinsky Special” that applies to baseball, basketball, and hockey. It basically says to not expect much out of teams in their first game at home after a long road trip, and it bit the Dodgers last night along with a couple other teams. They returned home after a 9-game road trip and put up a dud, but I think they bounce back here.
Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has had all his struggles on the road this season, posting a 5.81 ERA and .304 opponent batting average. That’s allowed opposing teams to average 5.2 runs per game in his 11 road starts. With the Dodgers averaging 5.5 runs per game at home and so good against right-handed pitching, I see them getting the offense back on track tonight.
WNBA (1 Unit) Las Vegas Aces 1st Half -8.5 @ Chicago Sky (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
The Aces just keep rolling even without Candace Parker in the lineup, and they should jump out to another fast start tonight. Las Vegas is 17-6 ATS on the first half spread this season thanks to a plus-23.4 NET rating in first halves. The Sky do not match up well against Vegas, as they have the worst 2-point defense in the league and the Aces will feast inside. You can’t give easy looks like that to such an elite offense, which the Aces proved in the first meeting by jumping to a 17-point lead at half. I see similar results tonight for a Vegas team that just can’t be stopped right now.
WNBA (0.25 Unit) Phoenix Mercury Team Total Under 78.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3
It’s possible the excellent Atlanta offense pulls this game upward while a porous defense allows a lot of scoring. But I’m not buying that it’ll be enough for the league’s lowest-scoring team to reach this level. Not only do the Mercury average just 76.3 PPG overall, they’ve been worse on the road in averaging just 75.1 PPG. They’re also 8-3 under this team total on the road this year, and even a suspect Dream defense should hold them down once again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1415-1248 ATS (+71.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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