Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/25

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on ESPN+

Well, this series has been wild in ways I didn’t expect. The Rockies figured out not only how to score on the road, but they are doing it against arguably the best pitching staff in baseball. That, plus their own pitching woes being on full display, created 43 runs and 3 easy overs this weekend, and I’m seeing another tonight.

Those pitching woes for Colorado might top out tonight with Kyle Freeland on the mound. The Rockies starter has an 8.44 ERA this month and has allowed a .399 average and .991 OPS to Milwaukee’s lineup in his career. That should allow the inconsistent Brewers lineup to stay hot as they have all weekend.

And Colorado should produce as well with Milwaukee starting a lefty in Aaron Ashby. Hitting lefties is what the Rockies do best, and they’ve already produced against the top of Milwaukee’s rotation, so the worst Brewer starter should be easy pickings. I honestly thought this total was a mistake when I saw it, so I’m loving the over here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals/LA Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

The Dodgers' offense is heating up, with July being their best month at the plate all season. That should continue here against a Washington team that’s had the most runs scored on it in all of baseball.

The Nats will start Paolo Espino today, who as a righty is what the Dodgers hit the best against. He also began this season as a reliever and doesn’t go deep into games, bringing a Nationals bullpen into play that is bottom-5 in most statistical categories.

So yes, the Dodgers might clear this total by themselves as they did in two of the previous three meetings this season. But I’m also sensing that we’re close to significant regression out of Tony Gonsolin. His last start and All-Star Game appearance have me believing that some of the magic is wearing off, so Washington should be able to contribute here. If they can chip in a couple of runs, a hot Dodgers lineup should handle the rest and get this game over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 815-681 ATS (+78.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.