Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/24

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins ML (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Twins are riding high after a dramatic finish in their sweep of the White Sox, and I think they should keep it rolling here. We just saw this matchup last week, with the Twins winning handily over Luis Castillo and the Mariners, so I disagree with Seattle still being a relatively sizable favorite on the road.

The Twins are hitting much better since moving Carlos Correa to lead-off, and getting more clutch hits as well. They’ve proven they can do it against Castillo on the road which had been a problem for them all season. With Kenta Maeda undefeated in July and getting back up to speed, look for the Twins to sneak past the light-hitting Mariners tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Baltimore Orioles ML @ Philadelphia Phillies (+105; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on NBCS-PHI

With the Phillies slumping and the Orioles surging, this is a good opportunity to take advantage of what is still a lack of faith in Baltimore’s season. Despite taking 3 of 4 in Tampa to surge into first in the AL East, the Orioles still opened as a fairly big underdog for this game. All the money has come in on Baltimore here though, and I still think they’re a good bet at this plus-money return.

Not only is Baltimore the league’s second-best road team, they just keep winning behind Dean Kremer. The Oriole righty has led the team to a 7-2 record in his starts since June began, and those wins tend to also leverage the best bullpen in baseball. Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez has been solid, but Philly just doesn’t give him much run support which will be a problem again tonight. For the most part I’m really following my gut and the smart money here in looking to cash the plus-money return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) KC Royals @ Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m seeking more plus money in this one by continuing to fade the Kansas City train wreck. The Royals are just 2-8 since the All-Star break, with 5 of those losses by the run line. Maybe most surprising was them getting swept by the struggling Yankees, as their awful pitching couldn’t even hold down that slumping lineup.

I think a Guardians team that has dominated the Royals in general this season can do it again here. Cleveland has racked up a plus-22 run differential in the season series so far, and have one of their surprisingly successful starters on the mound today. Logan Allen keeps engineering lopsided wins for Cleveland, who have won 7 of his starts in a row with 6 of those by multiple runs. I think Cleveland jumps on bad KC pitching again to extend the Royals woes and cash this plus-money return.

MLB (1 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

In this particular situational split, these are two starting pitchers with permanent tickets on the struggle bus, and that should send this game flying over the total. It’s sad to see Adam Wainwright hitting the wall of old age, but he just should not be out there anymore. His 7.66 ERA is somehow actually outperforming his expected ERA, and he’s getting crushed by lefty hitters for a .396 average and 1.169 OPS.

Arizona has plenty of left-handed bats including star Corbin Carroll to take advantage there, and I think they’ll need all the run support they can get. They’ll start Ryne Nelson again here and his home/road splits are just incredible, getting crushed at Chase Field for an 8.08 ERA and .357 batting average. Both teams have excellent offenses looking for bounce backs, and these gas can starters should be exactly what they need to get rolling and hit this over.

MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

The Dodger offense is red hot, and there’s just no way to justify betting anything but the over with them right now. In the past week alone they’ve gone over this total three times all on their own, and that’s not impossible again here against Jose Berrios on the road. Berrios is most prone to his well-known blowups in road games, and the Dodger lineup has a collective .333 average and .987 OPS against him so another could be coming.

Toronto’s offense has been very inconsistent despite all the talent throughout the lineup, but should contribute here. I’m still not convinced that Michael Grove has the stuff to overpower such a talented group of hitters, and I’m definitely not confident in the awful Dodger bullpen. With their past 6 games all going over this total while averaging 13.8 runs, the Dodgers should expand on their league-best over record.

Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each) Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) & Over 0.5 Home Run (+340)

Berrios has experience with Betts from when the Dodger star was in Boston, and it was all advantage Mookie. He has a .438 average and 1.339 OPS against Berrios with a couple home runs. Betts is hitting far better at home this season, so finally being back in LA for the first time since the All-Star break should give him a boost. He’ll have the most at-bat opportunities of anyone as the lead-off man, and I think he cashes in.

Degenerates

MLB Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

These teams have now played 10 times this season and are averaging 7 runs per game. If you remove the two outlier slugfest games that average drops to just 4.9 runs per game. It’s mostly because of how poorly the Reds have hit Milwaukee’s pitching, so why am I looking to the over here?

Well, you’ll never guess who the starting pitchers were for those two outlier slugfests. Colin Rea started both of those for Milwaukee, Graham Ashcraft started one of them for Cincinnati, and they both take the mound tonight. Ashcraft has actually been excellent lately, but the fact that the Brewers gave him his worst start of the year has my attention.

Rea has been getting hit hard at home in general with a 5.31 ERA, and this Reds lineup has a cumulative .333 average and 1.107 OPS against him. If the Reds are going to break out of their slump against this pitching staff it’ll be tonight, which I think can fuel an over.

Tiny Nick is 1411-1245 ATS (+70.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.