Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/24

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ Detroit Tigers (+100): 12:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

If the Twins are serious about holding off Chicago and Cleveland for the division, then this kind of game becomes the must-win kind. They acted like it yesterday, cruising past the Tigers for an easy victory, and I have to believe another is coming here.

They’ll need Sonny Gray to get back on track though after a couple rough outings. It will help for him to face this weakest of weak lineups, with the Tigers still dead last in scoring and most power metrics. Gray dominated them once already this season, so I’m confident he can right the ship after struggling against a couple far better lineups.

I’m anticipating plenty of run support for Gray as well, with the Twins able to tee off on Rony Garcia again. Minnesota has already tagged the Tiger righty for an 8.00 ERA in two meetings this season, and Garcia really struggles at home with a 5.47 ERA that’s double his road number. If the bats can stay hot from yesterday, the Twins should roll again in a game they need.

MLB (0.25 Unit) NY Yankees -1.5 @ Baltimore Orioles (-110): 12:35 PM CT on MASN

This just feels like a good bounce back spot for the Yankees after last night’s ugly performance. New York went 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position last night, deservedly choking the game away late. That should not continue here against a pitcher in Dean Kremer that they know how to crush. Hopefully the big Yankee bats of Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres all play today, because they’re batting a combined .533 against Kremer.

So that should solve the power outage issue in key spots, and Nestor Cortes should solve the rest. Nasty Nestor has trended back in the right direction after a couple bumps in the road, and gets a Baltimore team that’s just 24th in average and 21st in scoring against left-handed pitching. Only six of New York’s 10 wins over the Orioles this season have come by the run line, but in a bounce back situation with this pitching matchup I’ll count on another coming here.

MLB (0.6 Unit) Houston Astros ML @ Seattle Mariners (-120): 3:10 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

I don’t understand why Houston is not getting more attention as potentially the best team in baseball. I’ve ridden them all week as they swept a twin-bill from the Yankees on Thursday, then proceeded to snap a Mariners win streak that was getting a lot of publicity. It would be quite the flex for them to sweep Seattle today, and I think they do it.

It won’t be easy against Robbie Ray, and we’re probably in for a pitcher’s duel here. But Houston is used to winning those as the team with the most unders in baseball. Despite that they’re still 5th in baseball for OPS against righties, so they should be able to get to Ray somewhat, especially with Yordan Alvarez back in the lineup.

And I like the spot for Framber Valdez who starts for Houston. The lefty has excellent road numbers, a good history against the Seattle lineup, and should continue that with the Mariners struggling against lefties in general. This Houston team has the 2nd-most road wins in the league, and I’ll ride with them again here at a fairly cheap price.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 812-681 ATS (+76.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.