Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/22

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics Over 7 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

Cool air, don’t care. While this game is in Oakland, where the weather has a big impact on scoring, there should be enough offense to clear such a low total. And on the plus side of the weather handicap, there’s a big wind blowing straight out to center at Oakland Coliseum. These teams have turned their season series into a scoring fest as well, meeting or exceeding tonight’s total in the past 6 games and averaging 10.3 runs on the year.

Probably the biggest factor for me is Spencer Howard starting for Texas again. The Ranger righty has calmed down somewhat but still just cannot get right-handed batters out. Howard has a .377 average allowed, a 1.214 OPS allowed, and a 2.00 WHIP against that side of the plate, which happens to be the vast majority of Oakland’s lineup.

And while Cole Irvin has been solid for the A’s, Texas has been swinging hot bats lately. They’ll also get to face the putrid Oakland bullpen for several innings since Irvin doesn’t typically go very deep into games. With one of the lowest totals you’ll see in a baseball game, I see enough from both teams to get over the number.

Degenerates

MLB Atlanta Braves Team Total Under 4 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

Two words: Shohei Ohtani. In the 6 straight wins since the Angels superstar got locked in on the mound, opposing teams have gone under this number every time. A quick reminder that even though he bats left-handed, Ohtani is a right-handed pitcher. That makes this matchup with the Braves much more favorable to him since their numbers against righties are nothing close to the damage they do to lefty pitchers.

Shohei also has excellent numbers against right-handed bats, which are the majority of Atlanta’s best hitters. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Angels made it 7 straight wins behind their Cy Young candidate here, but I definitely think we see a low output from the Atlanta offense in the process.

MLB Colorado Rockies Team Total Under 2.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

There are two situations where the Rockies struggle mightily to score: on the road and against right-handed pitching. Colorado is 25th in runs scored against righties and dead-last in scoring on the road. Put them at home against a lefty, and the scoreboard operator is in for a long night. But they should be in for a long night themselves here.

I just don’t see them getting anything done against Corbin Burnes, who is showing why he’s the reigning Cy Young winner. The Milwaukee righty has a 1.61 ERA the past month, and opposing teams have gotten over this total once in his past 6 starts. He should continue to dominate in a wonderful matchup given Colorado’s struggles, and the excellent Brewer bullpen will slam the door late to keep the Rockies under this number.

Tiny Nick is 811-679 ATS (+77.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.