Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/21

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers/Texas Rangers Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

I’m going to keep fading Tony Gonsolin whenever I can, as one of the luckiest pitchers in recent history is finally seeing his luck run out. I think that continues here against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. The Rangers own the best batting average against righties like Gonsolin, and are top-3 in every other important metric. I think they can jump on a starting pitcher with expected ERA and expected fielding independent numbers hovering in the 5.00 range.

But I have to expect contributions from the excellent Dodgers lineup as well, especially after they went over this number in all 3 games against strong Baltimore pitching. They’ll face Andrew Heaney who’s been far worse at home this season with a 4.75 ERA and has problems with walks. Among the many mysteries of this MLB season is how the Dodgers can be 29th in average against lefties yet 5th in scoring. But I won’t argue, I’ll just expect these teams tied for the best plus/minus to the total to keep putting up runs.

Degenerates

MLB Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

The Rockies are pitching a bullpen game today. That’s a bold strategy Cotton, let’s see how it works out for them since their relievers are bottom-3 in the league for just about every metric. Colorado is also the third-worst team to the run line on the road, a product of their poor hitting away from friendly Coors Field. Braxton Garrett has had his troubles at home this season for Miami, but as a lefty he puts Colorado in their worse split to exacerbate the road woes. Returning home should also help the Marlins after two rough series on the road, and I expect them to jump all over the Rockies relievers.

Tiny Nick is 1408-1242 ATS (+69.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.