Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/19

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Scoring has skyrocketed across MLB in the two days since returning from the All-Star break, with 14 of 26 games reaching double digits and 13 individual teams scoring double digit runs. The Twins and Mariners have been part of both of those, with consecutive 13-run games and the Twins putting up 10 last night. Why stop now, especially with such a low total to clear once again?

I definitely think the Twins can keep the bats rolling against Luis Castillo, who has been experiencing inevitable regression after posting unsustainable numbers at home. His past 3 home starts have easily cleared this total, which is unusual for Seattle games. With Kenta Maeda starting it’s tough to know what you’ll get from a Mariners offense that is always enigmatic. But anything around their past 15 game average of 4.5 runs and this one should find its way over the low total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) San Diego Padres @ Toronto Blue Jays ML (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:07 PM CT on MLB Network

The market just takes the Padres too seriously because of the star players and hype surrounding them. A team as inconsistent as they’ve been, visiting a very good team from the best division in baseball, should not create essentially a pick-em price. That makes Toronto the obvious side here in my opinion, especially with them set to bounce back after a predictably bad loss last night on Alek Manoah Day.

But the Jays will send Jose Berrios out tonight, and the good version of Berrios is back and at home where he’s at his best. With just a 2.83 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season, Berrios should hold down a Padres team that’s hilariously bad against righties given all their big-name bats. Meanwhile, a Toronto lineup that’s had a lot of success historically against Yu Darvish should provide the run support needed to get this win.

MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants/Cincinnati Reds Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

Games that follow a 20-plus run slugfest like the one these teams got into last night tend to do pretty well to the over. Bats don’t cool off that quickly, and bullpens are depleted, so more scoring is usually what you’ll see. I think we see it here in a matchup of starting pitchers that I don’t trust.

Ross Stripling for the Giants doesn’t typically pitch very deep into games, so that bullpen that used 6 arms last night will be exposed to the excellent Reds offense. They should jump on Stripling right away since he’s getting crushed by left-handed hitters, which is the entire Cincy outfield plus Elly De La Cruz and Joey Votto.

Graham Ashcraft has had three straight good outings, but those were against weak competition. He tends to be a gas can at home with a 7.16 ERA, not surprising in such a hitter-friendly park. His team’s bats finally woke up last night, and should provide the kind of run support that has made his home starts average 10.9 runs per game.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Atlanta Braves Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South

Ditto for this matchup on the tendency of games that follow slugfests to be high scoring. Last night’s wild 29-run affair isn’t likely to be replicated, but with these two offenses anything is possible. The Atlanta bats in particular should stay hot, as I see them getting to Ryne Nelson easily. The Arizona righty has crazy and unsustainable home/road splits, and there’s no team better suited to evening those out than the Braves at home.

But the quietly elite Diamondbacks offense is locked in right now with Corbin Carroll looking healthy. The Snakes are in their preferred split tonight against righty Charlie Morton, who’s been hot lately against weaker competition. His starts this season against teams that can actually hit righties have gone 7-2 over this total, and I’m seeing another here. These teams used 11 combined bullpen arms yesterday, so whether its starters or relievers giving them up, plenty of runs should be coming again.

Degenerates

British Open Golf: Thursday - Sunday on Golf Channel and NBC

Back at it again, this time for a major. This is our only major off US soil, so pack your bags, or get to bed early & set your alarm for 2am EST.

More links style golf this weekend. What does it take to win? Golfers are going to need to find scoring opportunities on Par 5s and we are seeking top performers in the strokes gained: tee to green category. Don't be shocked if a LIV player takes home the claret jug this year. We can be sure it will see some beer if that winner is Brooks, DJ or a Cam Smith repeat.

To Win: 

Xander Schauffle +2500

Tommy Fleetwood +2900

Dustin Johnson +3100

Colin Morikawa +3200

Wyndham Clark +5000

Justin Thomas +6500 (yes I am going to keep taking shots at JT)

Ryan Fox +10000

*I battled putting Jon Rahm here as he is well equipped to win, but his recent play doesn't justify the short odds in my eyes. If you are looking to go heavy this weekend, add him to your card at +1300.

Top 10 Finish:

Dustin Johnson +300

Wyndham +425

Top 20 Finish:

Ryan Fox +350

Woodland +500

Head to Head Matchups:

Min Woo Lee +105 vs. Tony Finau

Tommy Fleetwood -140 vs. Shane Lowry

Tiny Nick is 1407-1238 ATS (+71.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.