Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/18

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers @ Baltimore Orioles -0.5 First 5 Innings (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 6:05 PM CT on TBS

The Orioles appeared to be cruising in last night’s meeting before the Dodgers erupted for a 5-run 6th inning. That can happen against such an elite offense, especially since Baltimore did not send out their best pitching yesterday. But maybe the best of their rotation goes today, while the Dodgers send out another struggling young starter, and I expect that to result in the Orioles being in control early.

Baltimore should be able to get to Michael Grove, who clearly does not look ready for the big leagues quite yet. He’s been lit up in his road starts, allowing a 11.15 ERA, a 2.48 WHIP, and .427 batting average. The Orioles should take advantage of those numbers while Tyler Wells continues his excellence at home, where his 0.82 WHIP and .190 average allowed can quiet even the Dodger bats. Fading LA is scary, but Baltimore is undervalued and underappreciated, so I see them atoning for letting yesterday’s game slip away.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx @ Atlanta Dream -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

Anyone thinking the Lynx had things figured out during their 8-2 stretch needs to examine the schedule more closely. Every one of those wins came against the four teams at the bottom of the league standings, mixed in with blowout losses to two of the best. The blowouts returned to close the first half of the season, losing by 24 to Vegas and 40 to Dallas.

The Lynx aren’t terrible, they just punch down and not up. They’ll face another quality opponent tonight in Atlanta where the Dream have strung together 6 straight lopsided wins. The Dream are also great at handling their business against inferior opponents but can challenge the upper-tier teams with their excellent offense as well. Being able to defend strong offensive teams has been the biggest weakness for Minnesota, and that should result in an easy win and cover for Atlanta here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1406-1237 ATS (+71.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.