Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/18

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Corey Seager Wins Home Run Derby (+1000): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

As we saw in last season’s derby, Pete Alonso is basically built for this competition. With the power and stamina he has, the Mets first baseman is a deserving favorite for this year. But he’s far too short of a favorite to offer any value, and it’s borderline irresponsible to bet favorites in this sort of market anyway. Plus, Alonso is in what you’d have to call a slump right now. Despite being fifth in homers in all of baseball he has just five in his past 27 games, plus only six other extra base hits.

I think that power outage leaves the door wide open in this competition, and Corey Seager can walk right through it. Seager has been ridiculous lately, with seven home runs in his past 12 games. This is also a homecoming of sorts for the Rangers shortstop, as he spent seven seasons hitting bombs out of Dodger Stadium.

His toughest test might be the first round against Mariners phenom Julio Rodriguez, but get through that round and it’s a matchup with the aforementioned Alonso. If Seager makes the finals he could be up against the second favorite in Kyle Schwarber. But I don’t see him having the stamina to match Seager, who’s less likely to tire out by that point. At a payout of this size, it’s definitely worth a shot to see if this dark horse can come through.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 809-677 ATS (+77.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.