Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/17

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers/Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network

There are two young starters going in this game that I think are pretty vulnerable to hot offenses. Probably most likely to get lit up is Grayson Rodriguez for the Orioles, who is back after getting sent down to the minors. The righty was just plain awful in his first big league action this spring, especially at home where he piled up a 9.55 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, and .347 opponent batting average. With the Dodgers so good against righties, they should put up a big number today.

But Baltimore also enters this game on a tear, winners of 8 straight where they’re averaging 7.5 runs per game. They’ll face Emmet Sheehan who has gotten progressively worse since a strong first start in the majors, and was shelled last time out. The weak Dodgers bullpen was also used a lot over the weekend, so their more vulnerable arms are likely in line for action here. That should all combine with warm weather and wind blowing out of Oriole Park to generate plenty of scoring tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This is a good spot for the Dodgers first baseman to get back on track after a tough weekend against the Mets. The most difficulty Grayson Rodriguez has is against left-handed hitters like Freeman who are batting .329 with a 1.118 OPS. Freeman closed the first half on a tear, and I expect him to return to form against a bad starter here.

MLB (1.5 Unit) Washington Nationals/Chicago Cubs Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

I couldn’t believe when I saw this total open at 8, and apparently neither could the smart money that has bet it up to here. The only explanation I can think of is the wind not blowing out of Wrigley, but it’s more of a neutral factor than anything negative.

So I’m jumping in here between two teams with hot offenses that both hit lefties well. It’s a matchup of two left-handed starters in Mackenzie Gore and Drew Smyly, putting both offenses in their vastly preferred split. These teams rank second and third in scoring against lefties, and the Nats are now leading the league in weighted runs created against lefties.

These teams have also been getting into slugfests lately, with the Cubs on a 10-3 run over this number and the Nationals on an 11-2 run. Both bullpens are worn out from high-scoring series over the weekend so the vulnerable starters will have longer leashes, and that only serves to help this game get over the total.

MLB (1.5 Unit) LA Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on Bally Sports West

This is another game where I was shocked by the opening total of 8, but it’s been bet up to 9 by smart money. That’s a little unfortunate because it drags the isolated Angels number with it, but I still love their chances of continuing some torrid hitting. The Angels had a weekend of absolutely wild games with the Astros, putting up 26 runs against far better pitching than they’ll see today.

It doesn’t take much to keep the bats hot against Luis Severino who the Angels will face here. The Yankee righty has been atrocious since the calendar flipped to June, piling up a 9.48 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in his past 7 starts. Severino is also a fly-ball pitcher, and the wind blowing out of Angel Stadium should help the home team continue hitting like they did over the weekend.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/LA Angels Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This is a considerably smaller bet for me because of concerns I have about the Yankees against a right-handed starter in Griffin Canning tonight. But Canning has had a rough time at home this season with a 5.12 ERA, and his past 5 starts overall are 4-1 over this total. The Yankees also aren’t likely to face the best of an Angels bullpen that’s 23rd in ERA after so many arms got used up over the weekend. It’s also possible the Angels just get over this number on their own, but I’ll count on some contributions from the Yankees as well.

Extra Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each) Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+250) and Over 0.5 RBI (+130)

Severino has been so terrible that I'm willing to dive into the home run market at a ludicrously low return with Shohei tonight. He has a dinger in each of the past two games, and one off Severino in 4 career at-bats. Severino has given up 10 bombs in his past 31 innings of work, and conditions look ripe for Ohtani to keep raking.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1401-1235 ATS (+69.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.