Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/16

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Careful Twins, you do not want to give this White Sox team a spark. That’s exactly what they’ve been doing though, allowing 27 runs to the Southsiders in the past 3 meetings. That has allowed the season series to go 6-2 over this total, and I see another one today. Dylan Bundy might be a solid candidate to slow down the White Sox offense, however, his lone start against them this season did end up getting over this number.

But the Twins should be able to get the bats going themselves today against Lance Lynn, who they just saw 10 days ago. They tagged him for five runs in a game that finished with 17 total, which isn’t that much of an outlier for Lynn’s starts that have averaged 11.2 runs. He just hasn’t seemed right since returning from injury last month, and the Twins should take advantage again. On a warm and humid afternoon at Target Field, scoring conditions should be ideal to get this game over.

MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Mets -1.5 @ Chicago Cubs Game 1 (+130): 1:20 PM CT on Marquee

I can’t believe there’s plus juice on this number, much less this big of a return. The Mets are simply too good for this Cubs team, especially with a hot Taijuan Walker on the mound. The New York righty has posted a 1.85 ERA and 2.00 FIP in his past six starts, and faces a struggling Cubs lineup that has managed three or fewer runs in eight of the past 10 games.

That just won’t be enough to keep up with what the Mets offense is likely to produce against their old teammate Marcus Stroman. The friendly confines of Wrigley Field have been terribly unfriendly to Stroman, posting a 9.33 ERA at home. The New York lineup also has a cumulative .336 average against him, so plenty of runs should be coming off Stroman and an awful bullpen. The Mets are the second-best team in baseball as a run line favorite, and they should extend that record this afternoon.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners -1.5 @ Texas Rangers (+120): 3:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

Sadly the winning streak came to an end for Baltimore, but it’s still alive and well for the Mariners. They come into this penultimate game before the All-Star break with 12 straight wins, and 20 in their past 23 games. They’ve also handled Texas well all season, going 6-2 against the Rangers with a plus-11 total run differential. I’m liking Logan Gilbert in this spot too, perhaps their best starter who was already 2-0 against Texas this season before Seattle got anywhere near this hot streak.

The hot Mariner bats have already put up 14 total runs the past two nights in Arlington, and they might be just getting started since they’ll see Spencer Howard tonight. All of the most dangerous Seattle bats are righties, and Howard is horrendous against that side in allowing a .391 average and 1.286 OPS. That should allow the Mariners to get plenty of support to Gilbert who has a 0.71 ERA against Texas this season. That equates to an easy win for Seattle in my mind, and I’m definitely loving the plus-juice return for it to happen.

Degenerates

MLB Boston Red Sox/NY Yankees Over 8.5 (-110): 6:15 PM CT on FOX

This number just feels a little too low for how this rivalry has played out lately. After a lower-scoring start to the season series, the past five have gone over this total with 13 runs on average. And we just saw this exact pitching matchup on Sunday night, where 17 runs were scored.

There’s certainly reason to believe that two solid starting pitchers will bounce back after both got shelled that night, especially with both having reasonably decent numbers against the opposing team. But getting shelled is becoming a significant trend for Jameson Taillon, who owns an 8.57 ERA in his past four starts. Nick Pivetta has also been trending in the wrong direction, and is notably much worse against right-handed bats which he’ll see plenty of tonight.

Ultimately I’ll trust the trend of this series in general, as well as the theory that consecutive starts for pitchers against the same team benefits the bats. That should get this game over a number that I was definitely surprised to see.

Tiny Nick is 807-675 ATS (+77.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.