Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/14

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:05 PM CT on NBCS-PHI

I think both starting pitchers are in for a tough evening here, and that should push this game over the total. Yu Darvish in particular should continue to struggle, as the results just haven’t been there for him lately despite strong underlying metrics.

His past 4 starts have seen him pile up a 7.17 ERA, and he’s been at his worst on the road this season with a 6.16 ERA. Philadelphia will be in their better hitting split against Darvish as they’re 5th in batting average against righties. Darvish has gotten in trouble this year by stacking up baserunners, and that should happen again here with the Phillies so good at getting men on base.

I’m also seeing regression come for Cristopher Sanchez against a Padres offense that’s really only good versus lefty pitching. San Diego ranks 4th in weighted runs created, and closed the first half of the season strong by averaging 6.1 runs their past 10 games. With warm weather and a solid wind blowing out to center, this game has a lot of what I look for to get over the total.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115 Odds via DraftKings)

Darvish struggles against several Phillies hitters, but I’m looking at Schwarber in particular here. He has a career .333 average and 1.383 OPS against Darvish with 3 extra-base hits. Just one of those and this will cash at a nice plus-money return.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+110)

Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves (-250; Odds via BetMGM): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

I’ll be fading the AL Central with this parlay, and it starts with the disappointing White Sox who really looked like they had quit late in the first half of the season. That’s a good way to get rolled over by the Atlanta freight train with the Braves playing .667 baseball at home this season. Chicago meanwhile has the fourth-worst road record in the league, and that should worsen tonight in a matchup that heavily favors Atlanta.

With Michael Kopech starting for the ChiSox, I’m expecting the Braves bats to jump all over him. Kopech’s hard contact rate has gone way up this season which is bad news against such an elite hitting lineup. And a big part of Chicago’s struggles this year is their continued futility against righty pitching, and Braves starter Charlie Morton is really starting to lock in lately. The Braves are deserving favorites of this size, so I’m confident in their ability to start this parlay off right.

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (-200; Odds via BetMGM): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Completing the anti-AL Central parlay here is a typically struggling Tigers team, but this is more about Seattle than anything. The Mariners closed the first half on a tear, winning 3 straight series against top-tier contenders. It obviously gets a lot easier here against Detroit, and I think the Mariners keep the momentum going.

They have a great pitching advantage with Luis Castillo going against a Tigers offense that’s bottom-5 versus right-handed pitching. Castillo has been excellent at home with a 2.44 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .190 average allowed, plus the Mariners are 8-3 in his home starts. Seattle is also in their preferred hitting split against Eduardo Rodriguez, and their lineup has a career .304 average and .960 OPS against the Tiger lefty. Seattle needs games like this to maintain pace in a tough AL West, and beating up on the Central is a good place to start.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1396-1232 ATS (+70.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.