Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/14

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners ML @ Texas Rangers (+105): 7:05 PM CT on MLB Network

Ride the hot hand, plain and simple. There’s just no way I can fade Seattle right now with the Mariners winning 10 straight and 13 of their last 14 games -- especially not at a plus-juice return here against an overvalued pitcher.

The Rangers will turn to Martín Pérez to slow down the Seattle juggernaut. But after a scorching start to the season, the Texas lefty has come back to earth. Seattle’s bats have decent numbers against him, and notably, it’s the M’s who handed Texas the only defeat in Perez’s last 13 starts.

If the Mariners can get another solid start out of Marco Gonzales, whose stats don’t do him enough justice, then they’ll find themselves logging their 11th straight win. With them still in the underdog role after such a hot run, this seems like a good opportunity to pounce on a plus-juice return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Houston Astros -1.5 @ LA Angels (-105) 7:07 PM CT on ESPN+

I like Houston to bounce back here after being dominated by Shohei Ohtani last night. The Astros are good at bouncing back off a loss, 21-8 on the season, including 18-11 against the run line. They also have baseball’s second-best margin of victory in those spots at 1.6 runs. This is also a team used to running it up on the Angels, as 7 of their 8 wins over LA this season have come by two-plus runs.

Two of those wins were started by Framber Valdez, who takes the mound for Houston tonight. The Angels only have a career .203 average and a .580 OPS against the Astros lefty, and he will likely benefit from Ohtani having the day off after pitching last night. I also continue to fade Reid Detmers for the Angels, especially with Houston having excellent numbers against lefties lately. Even with Yordan Alvarez out, I still like one of baseball’s best teams to dominate one of baseball’s most disappointing squads.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 803-673 ATS (+76.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.