Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/13

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) New York Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on YES

With the Yankees in desperate need of a bounce back, you’d be hard-pressed to find many pitchers more capable of letting them get it than Mike Minor. The Cincy lefty just keeps riding the struggle bus, as does his team whenever he takes the mound.

Opponents are now averaging 6.7 runs per game in Minor’s starts, fueled by his 6.63 ERA. That balloons to a 7.94 ERA on the road, plus a .340 opponent on-base average. And against right-handed bats (blinks in Yankees lineup), he’s allowing a .310 average and 1.045 OPS. The Yanks are going to hit him hard, as they’re 5th in OPS, 4th in hard contact rate, and 1st in ISO power against lefties this season.

So I’d say New York is in a good spot to get back on track from this 3-game losing streak. They haven’t had many of those in this impressive season, losing more than 1 game only 5 times. But they’ve pulled themselves out of those mini-slumps with an average of 8.4 runs per game in the next win.

I can’t imagine them losing consecutive home games to the lowly Reds, which would push the losing streak to 4 games. Neither can Vegas, as the moneyline and run line are juiced far too high, so this feels like the best way to back the Bronx Bombers tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Houston Astros/LA Angels First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-110): 8:38 PM CT on MLB Network

If Shohei Ohtani is going to keep going at this rate, just set aside the Cy Young for him. Opponents have now scored 2 total runs against him – one of which was unearned – across his last 5 starts. Posting a 0.27 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in that stretch is superhuman stuff, and I don’t expect it to end tonight.

Ohtani has allowed just a .145 average and .427 OPS to the Astros in his career and notably gets to face them with Yordan Alvarez on the injured list. But don’t forget about how excellent Cristian Javier has been this season, boasting a 3.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the year. The Houston righty also owns the Angels, as they’re batting a mere .122 against him with a .429 OPS.

These two pitchers have combined for 23 innings against the opposing squad this season, and a grand total of 2 runs have been scored in that time. I think that can easily continue here, and even though this is a small number without room for error, this game should have a very low-scoring start.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 802-672 ATS (+76 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.