Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/12

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners ML @ Washington Nationals (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN2

I love this spot for a hot team versus a cold team, especially at just a pick ‘em price. The hitting that Seattle put so much effort into acquiring last winter is finally showing up and pairing nicely with their strong pitching staff. That’s led to this incredible 16-3 stretch where they’re averaging 4.7 runs per game, a number they would’ve given anything for last season.

Conversely, Washington is fully collapsing, having lost 10 of their past 11 games. Josiah Gray, who starts for them today, picked up that lone win and has probably been their best pitcher. But he was red-hot in June and has since regressed, so this is a good spot to sell on his recent success. Meanwhile, Seattle’s Chris Flexen has been a big key to their turnaround, winning 3 straight starts after the M’s were 3-10 when he took the mound. This spot where the Nats are returning home after a long road trip sets up well for the Mariners to keep it rolling, and there’s no way I’m fading the hot team right now.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles ML @ Chicago Cubs (+100): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

Another red-hot team making a surprising run at the AL Wild Card visits another NL dumpster fire here, and again I’m riding the streak. I’m not sure I recall a time in my whole life when the Orioles won 8 games in a row, but this team is definitely in a groove right now. Just like Seattle, they’re visiting a bottom-feeder team returning home from a long road trip, which is a great spot to fade the home club.

Besides one team being hot and the other cold, I think the biggest matchup advantage here for Baltimore is coming out of the bullpen. Orioles starter Jordan Lyles has been excellent lately at getting into the later innings, where he turns it over to a pen that’s up to 4th in WAR and 5th in ERA. Compare that to Adrian Sampson who often exits early, exposing a Cubs bullpen that’s allowed the most runs in the league. If this game is tight down the stretch, Baltimore will get their 9th straight win, and an even money price is worth paying for that.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Over 8.5 (-110): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

After an 18-run binge for these teams last night, there should still be plenty of leftovers for tonight. High-scoring outlier games like that tend to be followed by moderately high-scoring games in general. And this is becoming a trend for the matchup, as the last 4 meetings have gone over this total with an average of 14.3 runs per game. Last night’s slugfest was fueled by poor pitching, and the starters for this game aren’t much better.

Glenn Otto has pitched some lower-scoring games for Texas recently, but he has an 8.02 home ERA, and his only meeting with Oakland finished over this total. He also struggles to get right-handed bats out, which Oakland proved yesterday it’s able to exploit. Texas has also given serious work to its bullpen in 4 straight games, which only serves to create more scoring here.

And the Texas bats should stay hot against James Kaprielian, who they have a cumulative .365 average and 1.282 OPS against. With Corey Seager hitting home runs every game and more gas cans on the mound, this one should easily clear another mispriced total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 800-672 ATS (+74.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.