Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/11

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Miami Marlins Over 7.5 (-110): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

These two teams aren’t exactly known for scoring runs in bunches, so I can understand a fairly low total being posted when they get together. But this number is just too low for who’s on the mound today. I will always look for a way to fade Trevor Rogers at home, where he has a 7.98 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, and is allowing a .317 on-base average. That’s caused his home starts to go 6-1 over this total while averaging 9.7 runs per game.

With Pittsburgh in town and fresh off averaging 5 runs per game against the Milwaukee Brewers’ elite pitchers, this sneaky-powerful lineup should be able to do damage. But the Pirates send their own troubled starter to the mound tonight in Mitch Keller. The righty has a 5.80 road ERA for the Buccos, and a 7.20 ERA in his past 3 starts overall. The Marlins are far better against right-handed pitchers too, so they should get theirs tonight. With a total this low it doesn’t take much, and I see these teams having plenty to get over the number.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Over 8.5 (-110): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

As we saw over the weekend when the Twins visited them, Texas is certainly capable of scoring a lot of runs against poor pitching. Oakland isn’t exactly bringing a staff loaded with aces into this series, as they rank 22nd in runs allowed, 24th in ERA, and 26th in xFIP this season. The Twins actually rank far better in all those categories, so the Rangers should be able to take advantage at the plate here.

Texas is sending out a pretty poor pitcher of their own in Spencer Howard tonight, who allowed 4 runs in his last start and saw his ERA actually drop. Howard is having an extremely tough time against right-handed bats this season, and that’s the side where Oakland gets most of its offensive production. That should further what’s been a fairly high-scoring season series that’s gone 4-3 over this total. All those games have been played in the cool weather of Oakland, so better scoring conditions in Texas should allow these teams to exploit poor pitching.

Degenerates

MLB NY Mets/Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on FS1

This is a highly-anticipated series with big implications, and you couldn’t ask for a better start to it if you like pitcher’s duels. Two aces take the mound in a game that should be tight all the way through, but especially early.

Max Fried goes again for Atlanta, and the Braves lefty has been nothing short of excellent lately. Fried has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his past 4 starts, all against very strong offenses. And he’s already held down the Mets lineup earlier this year, notably in a game that saw the first 5 innings stay under this total.

And then there’s Max Scherzer, looking as strong as ever in his first start back from the injured list. As a righty, he’s playing into Atlanta’s weakness, as all their elite right-handed bats will have to contend with a pitcher that’s allowing just a .196 ERA and .431 OPS to that side this season. It’s tough to take the under on such a small number, but this game really feels like it has 0-0 or maybe 1-0 after 5 innings written all over it.

Tiny Nick is 800-672 ATS (+74.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.