Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/09

Locks

MLB (1.2 Unit) Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-120): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

The pitching matchup here is making this one look like a layup. Once again we have the Atlanta Braves facing a left-handed pitcher, which they do with better and more consistent power numbers than almost any other team. And this is not your ordinary lefty starter, it’s Patrick Corbin, who remains one of the more broken pitchers in baseball. Any time he faces a team with power from the right side of the plate, Corbin gets shelled.

That includes his only other start against Atlanta this season, where he left in the third inning after giving up six runs. That Braves blowout of Washington is typical of the matchup this season, as Atlanta has a plus-27 run differential in their seven games against the Nationals. And losing big is something Washington does consistently, with 46 of their 56 losses this season by multiple runs. This Braves team is rolling right now, and against one of the worst lefty starters in the league they should easily continue the hot streak.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Seattle Mariners Under 7.5 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

One starter in this game is the reigning AL Cy Young winner, and facing his former team for the first time. The other starter is a legitimate Cy Young candidate for this season. That sounds like a pitcher’s duel to me.

For Robbie Ray of the Mariners, this is a golden opportunity to shut down his teammates from last season. It can’t come at a much better time as the Blue Jays continue to really struggle at the plate, averaging just 2.6 runs per game during this 1-7 slide. That’s certainly not going to get it done against Ray, who has been excellent at home with a 2.33 ERA and .175 on-base average allowed.

But Alek Manoah is no slouch either, with just a 2.47 ERA on the road and having allowed 3 or fewer runs in 14 of his 16 starts. He’s also filthy against right-handed hitters by allowing just a .161 average to that side, which neutralizes Seattle’s only power bats.

With the inconsistency of these offenses meeting the dominance of tonight’s starting pitchers, I really don’t see how this game gets over even this low of a total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 799-670 ATS (+76.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.