Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/08

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins ML @ Texas Rangers (-115): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The infuriating variance of the marathon MLB season is in full swing right now. That can make it nerve-wracking to trust something that’s been as consistent as Sonny Gray, but it’s just impossible not to back him with Minnesota winning 8 of his past 9 starts.

He’s making a strong case for being the best arm the Twins have and has been excellent on the road with a 1.83 ERA and .186 on-base average allowed. Gray has also been great against left-handed bats, which the Rangers lineup is full of.

In this Gray versus Gray matchup, Jon Gray for the Rangers will likely force a pitcher’s duel tonight. But I like how Minnesota’s lineup stacks up against him, as well as a Texas bullpen that has over-performed based on their deeper metrics. The Rangers are also on a skid, and this first game back after a long road trip is a good spot to fade the home team. The Twins need games like this with Cleveland stumbling, and I say they get it behind their best pitcher.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network

I really like Baltimore in this spot, but with the price to back them in the game climbing by the minute, I’ll take this approach instead. The main reason is Reid Detmers, an excellent fade option whenever the Angels send him to the mound. Still somewhat dining out on his no-hitter two months ago, Detmers has struggled of late with a 6.23 ERA the past month. He’s also pretty bad on the road, posting an ERA and allowed on-base average nearly double what he has at home.

One thing you have to give credit to Detmers for is his dominance against left-handed hitters. But the Orioles have almost all righties throughout their roster and will be able to avoid that bright spot for the LA starter. Add in a below-average Angel bullpen, and you can see why opposing teams have averaged 5.5 runs in games started by Detmers this season. This Baltimore squad is on the rise, and I see them taking advantage here against a vulnerable starter.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Prime Video

Earlier this season, amidst all the Cy Young buzz for Nestor Cortes, it would’ve been inconceivable to see a total this high for one of his starts. But Nasty Nestor has been leaking oil lately, posting a 4.68 ERA the past month, plus seeing both his WHIP and allowed on-base average numbers climb dramatically. He’s also up against a Boston lineup full of excellent right-handed hitters, which can be his weakness as evidenced by their career .352 average and 1.071 OPS against Cortes.

So if the Red Sox are able to put up runs against the one-time Cy Young darling, that leaves the Yankees to do their part. I’d say they have a great opportunity against Connor Seabold, who has all of 3 starts and 11 innings at the big-league level. In his only other start against a team with elite right-handed bats, Seabold didn’t get out of the 5th inning against Toronto before allowing 7 runs. Whether or not Aaron Judge returns for the Yankees tonight, they should easily get to the Boston pitchers and contribute plenty of runs for this over.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Guardians/KC Royals Over 8.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

In their 7 meetings this season, the Guardians and Royals have averaged 9.6 runs per game. That stat is being propped up by two outlier games of 20 and 17 runs, but you’ll never guess what pitchers were involved in those games. OK, it’s not a tough guess, it was Aaron Civale of Cleveland fueling the 17-run game, and Brady Singer starting for KC in the 20-run outburst. As they combine their powers of giving up runs today, I’d expect this one to cruise over what is a fairly low total.

The Guardians should do their part, as they’re averaging 6.7 runs per game against the Royals this season, and their lineup has a .405 combined average and .994 OPS against Singer. But a Royals team that’s been heating up at the plate should have plenty of success against Civale, who is an absolute gas can on the road with a 9.90 ERA. Cleveland just gave up 7 runs per game in getting swept by Detroit, and I expect that to carry over into a high-scoring game tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners ML (-105): 9:10 PM CT on Apple TV+

The Seattle Mariners are hot. The Toronto Blue Jays are not. That’s an oversimplification but it’s still true, and it’s why Seattle has been taking all the money after Toronto opened as a fairly solid favorite.

The offense has ground to a halt for the Blue Jays, and since they’re built to overpower teams, it’s easy to see why they’re currently in a 1-6 slide. But this Mariners team is looking a lot more like the version that started the season, as they’ve climbed back to .500 behind a 13-3 stretch. Difficulties at the plate plagued Seattle after that hot start, but they seem to have figured things out. They should keep it rolling against Ross Stripling, who they have a combined .315 average and 1.013 OPS against.

But it really just boils down to Toronto being completely untrustworthy. The West Coast has not been the best coast for their bats, only managing 9 total runs across their 4 games against Oakland and now Seattle. Until they prove otherwise, the Jays are a fade for me, especially against hot opponents.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 796-668 ATS (+76.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.