Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/07

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees -1.5 @ Boston Red Sox (-110): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Yeah, I’d say the Yankees ironed out whatever issues they were having at the plate in last night’s 16-run outburst. They righted the ship just in time to face archnemesis Boston, and pairing that offense with a Gerrit Cole start should be the key to winning comfortably here.

Cole has gotten back on track himself after the Twins rocked him a month ago, allowing 4 total runs across his past 4 starts. And when the Yankees win behind Cole they do it with ease, covering the run line 9 times in the 12 wins they’ve earned in his starts.

The Red Sox are also having issues at the plate, losing 3 consecutive series due to only averaging 3.5 runs per game. Cole should worsen those issues, and that’s just not going to be enough to keep up with the New York offense. Boston starter Josh Winckowski has been fairly impressive, but hasn’t faced anything like the Yankee lineup, and will struggle against their right-handed power. I see that leading to an easy win for the Bronx Bombers in this classic rivalry.

MLB (1 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Game 2 Over 9 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

There will be a nonstop parade of bad pitchers going on and off the mound in this game, and that has me loving the over tonight. It starts with Bryce Wilson of the Pirates, who takes a 7.49 ERA and 1.79 WHIP into tonight’s start. His other starts this season have gone 6-3-1 over this total as a result of those numbers, plus Pittsburgh has a bullpen near the bottom of the league in most categories. Their pitching staff is also overworked after last night’s 16-run shelling by the Yankees.

And speaking of bullpens, this is a bullpen game for Cincinnati. That collection of gas cans is dead last in runs allowed, ERA, WHIP, WAR, batting average allowed, home runs allowed, and just about any other category you can imagine. The Pirates lineup has been showing plenty of improvement recently and should take advantage here. There’s a good reason why all 3 meetings in Cincy this season have gone over this number while averaging 11.3 runs, and I expect to see those factors create another over tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ

Sign me up for this rematch of horrendous pitching where the total is offering a 3-run discount. Tonight’s game won’t be in the thin air of Coors Field, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of these teams getting to 18 runs again. I certainly see them getting to double digits.

The shell of Dallas Keuchel that Arizona is trotting out tonight showed why he was available, getting crushed for 6 runs against Colorado last week. And Austin Gomber continues to epitomize Colorado's poor pitching, allowing tons of baserunners as he keeps getting progressively worse this season.

With such a short turnaround from Saturday’s meeting, I see that creating an advantage for the offenses here as they have fresh memories of how to crush the opposing pitcher. Relief isn’t coming from the relievers either as these bullpens are 24th and 28th in ERA, and allowed 8 combined runs after the starters were pulled on Saturday. Needing 3 fewer runs today feels like a generous discount given the pitchers we’ll see in this game, so I’m all over this over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 796-666 ATS (+78.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.