Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/06

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Oakland A’s Over 8 (-110): 2:37 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m going right back after this same number for these same teams after last night’s push. But I love it even more today because the pitchers got considerably worse.

José Berríos just keeps laying eggs on the road, but they’re golden eggs for over bettors. His road ERA is now a monstrous 7.92 and has led to those starts going 7-1-1 over today’s total. Berríos' struggles combined with the powerful Blue Jays offense has caused all of his starts since mid-May to go over this number while averaging 13.6 runs.

I get the sense more runs are coming, because the Athletics have solved Toronto pitching in general, and they are sending out their own troubled starter. James Kaprielian has had his biggest issues at home, posting a 6.45 ERA and seeing those starts go 4-1 over this number. There’s another big wind blowing out to center today, both pitchers also struggle in day games, and this one should fly over the total with ease.

MLB (0.6 Unit) LA Angels -0.5 First 5 Innings @ Miami Marlins (-120): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

What a crazy run Shohei Ohtani has been on from the mound, generating plenty of Cy Young and MVP buzz. A string of 4 games where he’s only allowed a single run will do that, and the last two with double-digit strikeouts doesn’t hurt either. The Angels have been getting him run support during this stretch as well, leading after 5 innings in all 4 games.

They should be able to continue that here against the Marlins and starter Trevor Rogers. Home is where the heartache is for Rogers, posting an 8.39 ERA and allowing a .330 on-base average. The Angels offense can be maddening at times, but they should find their way to an early lead against that poor pitching. Ohtani tends to have short appearances, though, averaging just under 6 innings per start, so target the F5 number at lesser juice to isolate his dominance.

MLB (0.5 Unit) New York Yankees Team Total Over 5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

Only two total runs in the past two games combined for the league’s highest-scoring offense? Either something is horribly wrong or we’re due for some serious positive regression. I’m inclined to believe it’s the latter, and after those two ugly games, we’re probably buying at a fairly low point for New York’s team totals.

I like the opportunity they have here against Mitch Keller for the Pirates. The opposing team is 6-6-3 against this team total in Keller’s starts this season, and he hasn’t faced anything close to the power that the Yankees bring to the plate. Keller is also yet to go any deeper than 6 innings this season, bringing a Pittsburgh bullpen into play that’s bottom-5 in ERA, xFIP, and total runs allowed. The price to back the Yankees to win or cover is a little out of hand here, so I’ll just count on their bats waking up after that two-game nap.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 794-665 ATS (+78.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.