Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/06

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Chicago White Sox Game 1 Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI

These are two suspect pitchers in tough situational splits that I think helps create a slugfest here. With Jose Berrios on the road you can usually expect a bit of a blowup, especially with some of those road demons showing up in his last road start. I think we’re also seeing Bad Berrios creep back in, with a 6.19 ERA his past 3 starts looking like a warning sign.

Those issues might pop back up in a big way against a Chicago lineup that’s hit him well historically, especially with the Southsiders looking much better at the plate lately. But they’ll need it as usual with Lance Lynn starting again, the owner of a 7.22 ERA at home and 7.71 ERA across his past 6 starts overall. Those struggles against a talented Jays lineup should make for a high-scoring affair in the afternoon game of this doubleheader.

Degenerates

MLB NY Mets F5 ML @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+105; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

This would usually be a pitching matchup where I’d look to the over because of two untrustworthy starters. But Carlos Carrasco for the Mets has been vastly improved his past couple starts, and that gives the Mets a big advantage over the Diamondbacks here. Arizona sends out Ryne Nelson for another home start where he’s been awful, posting a 7.09 ERA and 1.83 WHIP at Chase Field. Those are awful numbers that a Mets lineup trending in the right direction can exploit, so at plus money I’ll look for the visitors to take a lead after 5 innings.

Tiny Nick is 1384-1223 ATS (+68.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.