Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/02

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Yankees Game 2 Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 5:10 PM CT on Bally Sports GL

The second game of doubleheaders can be tricky to handicap, but really the only analysis needed in this one comes down to Aaron Civale. The righty Guardians starter could find himself in trouble today against this potent lineup, who he already got mauled by in April. That previous start saw him give up six runs over three innings in a 10-2 New York win, and came before the Yankees truly got things rolling this season.

Civale’s nine starts this season have seen every opposing team not named Detroit get over this total, and have averaged 7.1 runs per game. His biggest problems have come against right-handed bats, allowing a .323 average and .933 OPS. It’s no wonder the Yankees – with their embarrassment of riches from that side of the plate – put so many runs up in the first meeting. I’d say we’re in for another high-scoring game from the league’s highest-scoring offense here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Chicago Cubs Over 9.5 (-110): 6:15 PM CT on FOX

This national TV game will give the Cubs a chance to show off perhaps their worst pitcher, and against an extremely potent offense. There’s just no way to sugarcoat it for Alec Mills, who has no business being a starter. Any time the Chicago righty gets extended work he blows up, with 15 earned runs in his past 8 innings. The Red Sox offense has been extremely consistent lately, and should be able to get to Mills easily. That also brings the Cubs bullpen into play, one of the worst units in the league.

But don’t discount the Cubs and their ability to contribute runs to this total. This is a free-swinging lineup that’s been putting up a lot of runs and finding themselves in slugfests, with their past 20 games averaging 11.6 runs. It’s also a lineup full of right-handed bats, which Boston starter Josh Winckowski struggles against. The Sox righty also doesn’t tend to go deep into games, exposing Boston’s own bullpen issues. The winds are fairly calm and not blowing in at Wrigley tonight, so these teams should find their way to another high-scoring game.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Over 12 (-110): 8:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Let’s take a moment to thank the baseball gods for bringing together the confluence of factors that should create a slugfest in this game. First is the location, Coors Field, where totals like this really are the norm. Add in that the wind will be blowing out for most of this game, and we have conditions that can get good pitchers shelled.

That was the case last night as two starters that I actually have respect for let that game get to 12 runs. I do not, however, have respect for tonight’s starters. I’ll be honest, I didn’t realize Dallas Keuchel was a Diamondback, but the White Sox were wise to get rid of him and his 7.93 ERA that’s still growing. The new Arizona lefty will face a Rockies team with the best average and most runs scored against left-handed pitching.

Not to be outdone in the bad left-handed starter department though, the Rockies will send Austin Gomber out again. His 6.68 home ERA is certainly troubling, and a D’backs team that’s finding things at the plate lately should be able to capitalize. Given the conditions and pitchers, this one looks like it should fly over this relatively standard total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 791-662 ATS (+78.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.