Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/30

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Dean Kremer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I love my Twins, but I’m really sick of how this offense looks lately. They just can’t stop striking out – they have the highest strikeout rate both on the road and against right-handed pitching. They’re on the road against a right-handed starter today, and I’m seeing more swings and misses. Dean Kremer isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher, but this season is his best for both K’s-per-9 and swing-and-miss percentage. Kremer is averaging 5.9 K’s across his past 7 games, and with how much the Twins strike out, I think he gets over this today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) San Diego Padres/Cincinnati Reds Over 11 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

You have to expect runs when Graham Ashcraft starts, it’s just that simple. The Reds righty has a 12.82 ERA and 2.21 WHIP his past 8 starts, just eye-popping numbers, and those games have averaged 14 runs. I know the Padres have their issues against righties, but Ashcraft is struggling so much right now that even they should push plenty of runs across.

And Padres starter Seth Lugo doesn’t scare me against a hot Reds lineup either, as this team is a top-3 offense for scoring, weighted runs created, and weighted on-base average in June against righties. That offense and bad pitching just makes Reds games wild, especially at home where games have averaged 11.5 runs this month. It’s a hot, humid day in Cincinnati with the wind blowing out of a small ballpark, so there should be a lot of runs here.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Reds ML (+115; Odds via Caesars)

The Padres are reeling right now, just 2-8 in their past 10 games and losers of 5 straight against bad teams. A lot of those losses fall squarely on a struggling bullpen, and with both starters expected to get knocked around today I want to fade the team that also has struggling relievers. A hot Reds team that makes their living out-slugging the opposing team feels like the right side in an expected slugfest, especially at plus money.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 4 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 5:05 PM CT on NBCS-PH

The Nationals enter this game as a sizable road underdog, which is probably deserving against a hot Phillies team. But that only pulls down their isolated total, and I think it creates value on the number given their success against lefties. Especially a lefty like Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez who’s no more than a replacement-level pitcher. Washington is second only to the Rangers for scoring and weighted runs created against lefties, so against Sanchez and a mediocre Phillies bullpen they should get over this number regardless of how the game turns out.

MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants ML @ NY Mets (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on SNY

It’s an auto-fade of the Mets dumpster fire for me, especially after owner Steve Cohen made it clear that a tear-down could be coming. Against a strong and improving Giants team that’s on a 13-4 run, I think those struggles continue for the Mets tonight. It doesn’t help that they’re sending Carlos Carrasco to the mound, who has an 8.20 ERA at Citi Field this season.

And San Fran will counter with maybe their most consistent starter in Alex Cobb, who faces a Mets lineup that has really struggled against right-handers lately. But the bottom line is this Mets team really appears to be imploding and aren’t priced that way yet, so I’m jumping on the chance to go against them.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/LA Angels Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on AppleTV+

I’ve been paying a lot of attention to this Diamondbacks team lately as they’d probably be the best story in baseball if not for the Reds. The way they’re playing makes me believe the over is in play every night, and it usually is on the road where they’re 22-15-1 to the over with the league’s second-highest plus/minus to the total.

The Angels might not be quite on that level, but they’re still a team that put up 25 runs the other day and can really hit lefties like Arizona starter Tommy Henry. They’re extremely consistent against left-handed pitching, as are the D’backs against righties like Griffin Canning. With excellent weather in LA with the wind blowing out of Angel Stadium, I have to trust my gut that these teams produce runs tonight.

WNBA (1 Unit) Washington Mystics Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

Washington seems to finally be putting it together offensively, as they’ve trended higher-scoring the past 5 games. Meanwhile Atlanta’s defense is headed in the wrong direction, allowing 97.2 points per game the past 5 games. That includes the 109 they just gave up to the Mystics on Wednesday, and 110 the game before, so they’re justifiably the worst defense in the league. Washington is a shorter favorite on the road tonight which holds down their team total a little, and I have to fade the Dream defense here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1374-1213 ATS (+67.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.