Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/29

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox/LA Angels Over 9 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 3:07 PM CT on Bally Sports West

Things have been pretty ugly for Lance Lynn this season, and he’s probably going to be a big factor in getting this game over the total. Among many bad starts for the Chicago righty this season, his worst came against these Angels, giving up 8 runs in just 4 innings of work. The Angels can send up a lot of left-handed bats including Shohei Ohtani, and lefties are batting .350 with a 1.057 OPS off Lynn this season.

So the Angels should be in line for plenty of offense today, but never count out the White Sox when facing a left-handed starter. It’s where they’ve found their most success year after year, and I think it can continue today against Patrick Sandoval. This lineup full of big names for Chicago is wildly inconsistent, but putting them in their preferred split with the wind blowing out of Angel Stadium should lead to runs. With Lynn doing his usual gas can routine, I’m expecting this one to get over the total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Over 12 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on MLB Network

It’s a lot of runs, but two trends involving the Dodgers are catching my eye here. First is their record to the over on the road, 23-14-3 which is second-best in the league. There’s no away stadium friendlier to scoring than Coors, especially after these teams put up 17 runs last night. But LA was also on the losing end of that slugfest, and their games after a loss trend over at a league-leading 20-12-2 clip.

Also getting my attention is Chase Anderson being back on the mound for Colorado. He was the primary architect of their 25-1 loss to the Angels on Saturday where he gave up 9 runs while recording 8 outs. You could consider that an outlier if not for his prior start where he gave up 7 runs in 3 innings of work in Atlanta. With the Dodgers crushing right-handed pitching and the Rockies also in their preferred split against a righty, I think this high total is justified and should get cleared.

WNBA (1 Unit) NY Liberty/LV Aces 1st Half Over 87.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

The two super-teams of the WNBA get together in this one, and it has the feeling of both a showcase and critical battle for bragging rights. I think the high-flying showcase aspect of it is likely to show up early, while these teams lock things down late. That means plenty of points in the first half in my opinion, especially with how these squads have played lately.

The Liberty have been on fire since Sabrina Ionescu returned, and will have no problem playing at the fast pace the Aces prefer. If New York has a weak spot it’s their defense, and the elite Vegas offense can score on anyone. Aces home games have averaged 92.3 first half points while they show off for the home crowd, and they’ve yet to face a team with the Liberty’s scoring talent. That should send the early portion of this game flying over the total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever -2.5 @ Phoenix Mercury (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV

It’s inescapable at this point, the Mercury stink. I thought maybe the firing of head coach Vanessa Nygaard on Sunday would wake this team up, but they looked even worse in their next game. They’re the league’s lowest-scoring team with the second-worst defense, a bad combination that will only cause more losses to pile up.

So a fairly low number here to fade them is attractive, especially with Indiana on the rise. The Fever have pulled it together lately, and gave league-leading Vegas two tough games over the weekend. Indiana’s defense is a cause for concern, but I don’t think Phoenix has the ability to take advantage and should result in the Fever pulling away here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1371-1212 ATS (+66.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.