Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/27

Locks

WNBA (1.25 Unit) NY Liberty/Connecticut Sun Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

Behind the unstoppable Aces, these two teams rank 2nd and 3rd in shooting percentage, and are no strangers to high-scoring games. In their first meeting this season, neither team shot it well and total possessions were relatively low, leading to only 146 total points that fell far below the 165 posted total. Yet odds makers know full well the style and offensive capability of these teams, and set this number even higher. That’s a signal to me that the over is the play here between two excellent offenses that love to push the pace.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Connecticut Sun Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM)

The Sun were handled by New York in the first meeting, posting their lowest scoring output of the season. But that outlier performance doesn’t faze me since this team is averaging 84.1 PPG on the season and 86.1 at home. With the revenge angle and a high-scoring game anticipated, I’ll count on the Sun to keep their offense hot.

WNBA (1.5 Unit) Dallas Wings/Phoenix Mercury 1st Half Over 84.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This Mercury team is a weird story and playing some weird basketball. They’re too talented to be this bad, but I’ve noticed they’re playing much better offensively to start games before crumbling late. Phoenix is averaging 41 points in first halves and just 35.6 in second halves. Their defense is also really poor, so that’s helped their first halves to average 88.7 total points.

That makes the split in the halftime total not quite wide enough and thus presents value. It’s especially true considering these teams have played twice this season to first halves of 92 and 87 points, yet both games landed below tonight’s full-game number. Given the offensive strength of Dallas and the Mercury allowing the most points in the league, I think we see another fast start tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1366-1209 ATS (+65.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.