Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/26

Locks

NBA - Suns/Clippers Under 219 (-110):  8:00 PM CT on ESPN

The whole tone of this series was flipped upside down from Game 1 to Game 2, stayed that way in Game 3, and I’m looking for it to continue here tonight. These teams went from shooting 50.3% on Sunday to just 47.5% Tuesday, and then to a meager 40.6% on Thursday. This series has also been played at a glacial pace, averaging just 94.5 possessions through the three games which is unheard of in the modern NBA.

Combine that with the brick-laying being exhibited by these teams and it’s no wonder Thursday’s game failed to cross the 200-point mark. The LA Clippers and Phoenix Suns are not known for their offensive rebounding prowess or getting a lot of second-chance opportunities either, so if the pace and shooting are anything similar to how they’ve been I see this as another dead under.

Kawhi Leonard remains out tonight, Chris Paul looks very rusty, and the red-hot Cameron Payne may not be able to go as well, so their usual offensive contributions toward this total are limited at best. I see defense and measured possessions continuing to define this series, I see the under attracting sharp money, and I see another low-scoring affair in Game 4 tonight.

Bonus Lock; Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110): After a game that Ayton failed to grab 10 rebounds, mostly due to being pulled early in a blowout, I think he’s going to bounce back to his Game 2 form. Paul George and Ivica Zubac stole 31 rebounds from him in game 3 so that should swing back to the Phoenix big man here in Game 4.

MLB - Padres Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

If you missed the three-home run performance by Fernando Tatis Jr. last night, you missed a San Diego Padres offense that is finding its groove and meeting the awful Arizona Diamondbacks at just the right time to build their confidence. I’m looking to exploit Arizona here just like they are, and I think this isolated team total holds a lot of value because the full game total is low enough to hold it down.

The Padres have cleared this team total six times during their current eight-game home winning streak, and usually against much better pitching than they’ll face tonight. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has been pretty bad on the road this season, with a 6.54 ERA and .281 batting average against. If this Padres team is finally putting it all together and meeting their potential as it appears, then this team total should be no problem for such a talented lineup.

MLB - ML (-120) vs Yankees: 6:15 PM CT on FOX

Baseball has been a little unpredictable as of late but one thing that always remains consistent is this rivalry. Both of these teams have proven to be contenders this year but this pick really comes down to two advantages for Boston: starting pitching and home-field advantage.

Jordan Montgomery has been good in a small sample size this year but strikeouts are a key factor when you play at a smaller park such as Fenway and Nathan Eovaldi gets has a slight advantage there. Eovaldi is also coming off his worst start of the year so I expect him to be extra motivated to put that behind him. Fastball pitchers have had the best luck since the ongoing substance scandal for pitchers so Eovaldi should be less affected than others. Look for Boston to win this page of the never-ending book that is Boston vs New York.

Degenerates

NBA - Suns -1 (-110) @ Clippers: 8 PM CT on ESPN

I’m aware I’m probably being stubborn here but I’m still not drinking the Clippers Kool-Aid. I truly believe the Suns are a superior team in every way and I don’t think Paul is going to struggle the way he did in his return from a Covid absence in Games 1 and 2. The Suns know how important this game is in terms of keeping control of this series and I think the oddsmakers are undervaluing the Suns. I will say I wish the Suns were plus money in this game but I’m going with my gut and rolling with Phoenix.

Bonus Prop Bets:

Mikal Bridges over 11.5 Points (-110)

Devin Booker Over 27.5 Points (-110)

Reggie Jackson Over 3.5 Assists (-120)

Tiny Nick is 309-207 ATS (+86.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.