Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/26

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Baltimore Orioles Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MASN

These are two replacement level starting pitchers going against excellent lineups which sets up well for offense. Both teams have positive ROI records to the over this season, and the way Cincinnati has been playing in particular makes me see another over tonight.

The Reds should keep their bats hot against Cole Irvin, who’s getting crushed by right-handed bats which Cincy can send up in bunches. Their typical strategy of out-slugging the opponent will need to happen today with Brandon Williamson on the mound, especially with Baltimore able to adjust their lineup to send all right-handed bats against the lefty starter.

Reds games have been pretty wild lately, and they’re 8-2 over this total in the past 10 as a result. Being paired with another very capable offense that always puts the ball in play, combined with very favorable weather conditions, should send this one over the total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds ML (+115; Odds via Caesars)

Don’t let consecutive losses to the defending champs dissuade you from seeing the momentum of this Reds team. They played the Braves to 1-run games three times this weekend, and a little bit of luck in the losses would have made this price drastically different. Cincy’s lineup is a lot deeper, and if a slug-fest ensues I want to back the team that makes a living in those kind of games.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

Texas owns the MLB’s second-best record on the run line this season, with a plus-1.6 average run line differential that leads the league. When they’re at home that turns into the best mark in both categories. I see them furthering those trends here after a couple tough losses in New York, as they should jump all over Tigers starter Matthew Boyd.

The lefty for Detroit faces the league’s highest-scoring team against left-handed pitching, and the Rangers are also top-3 in every other metric. Boyd was also hit hard by the Rangers late last month, so this lineup knows how to get to him. Meanwhile, a Tigers lineup that’s dead last in every important metric on the road should continue to struggle. Of Texas’ 24 home wins this season, 22 have come by multiple runs, so if they’re winning tonight they’re doing it by the run line.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Mitch Garver Over 0.5 RBI (+165; Odds via DraftKings)

Garver had the day off yesterday so he should be rested and refreshed for a spot where the Rangers would be smart to play him. Garver has seen Matthew Boyd plenty of times, owning a .333 average and 1.378 OPS against him with 4 RBI’s tossed in. Along with his team, he’s also been crushing lefties in general with a .385 average and 1.115 OPS this season. Given Garver’s spot later in the lineup, he’ll be in excellent position to drive in a run tonight and cash this juicy return.

WNBA (1.25 Unit) Indiana Fever/Las Vegas Aces Over 172 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Luckily for the Fever, they got to spend a couple days in Vegas for their games with the Aces on Saturday and tonight. That sounds like fun, but playing the Aces certainly isn’t as they found out in Saturday’s track meet. The total closed at 170.5 in that game and the over was never in doubt, so this minor adjustment upwards just isn’t enough. Vegas plays too fast and shoots it too well for a team with defensive issues like Indiana to keep them in check. And at the preferred pace and style of the Aces, this game looks destined to fly over and continue the high-scoring trend across the WNBA.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1365-1205 ATS (+66.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.