Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/22

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on MLB Network

It’s remarkable that we’re still in June but already have a nearly -400 favorite in baseball. With even the run line juice getting out of control, that leaves one way to back Tampa in this game. I’m seeing them as having no trouble with the Royals today, and that should mean plenty of runs from the Rays.

Kansas City will open with Jose Cuas for a bullpen game, and they aren’t likely to use their best pitchers that you’d see in high leverage situations. So that means the worst arms from the league’s 3rd-most generous bullpen will go up against this Rays offense. Tampa is a top-3 offense at Tropicana Field and have averaged 6.3 runs per game in the past 12 games there, so today should be no different against terrible pitching.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Seattle Mariners @ NY Yankees ML (-115; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network

I know the Yankees look far different as a team without Aaron Judge in the lineup, and they might struggle at times in this one. But it’s a pitching matchup that I have to believe favors New York, so I have to back them at this cheap price. Mostly because I don’t believe that rookie Mariners starter Bryan Woo will have what it takes to go into Yankee Stadium and not implode to some degree.

Woo has some nasty stuff and can rack up the strikeouts, but I don’t believe he’ll be ready for the moment and I don’t think he gets much run support. Yankees starter Domingo German has been elite at home this season, posting a 2.92 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a .172 on-base average allowed. A Seattle lineup that’s 25th or worse in most metrics against righties should struggle, and allow the undervalued Yankees to scrape out a win.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Connecticut Sun Team Total Over 81.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

It’s a little concerning that Brionna Jones was injured at the end of Connecticut’s game on Tuesday, but I think this team is still a great bet to pile up points. The Sun are 8-5 over this team total on the season while averaging 82.8 PPG, and that includes putting up 89 on the Lynx just 3 weeks ago. Minnesota has a pretty uninspiring defense, allowing 82.3 PPG and a very high shooting percentage. Connecticut still has leading scorer Dewanna Bonner and plays at a fast pace, so I think they clear this number again.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm +2.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Indiana only ever seems to play close games, with all but 2 of their 11 games so far decided by single digits. And with 5 of those decided by a single possession, I’m not terribly interested in laying points with a team that’s always in a photo finish. It does interest me however to back Seattle here, with the Storm having a great 5-2 ATS mark at home and 7-4 as an underdog. Every one of their home games has been a single-digit affair except for a blowout loss to the unstoppable Aces, so I think they’re in this one to the end and will take the points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1353-1198 ATS (+65.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.