Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/20

Locks

MLB (1.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on TBS

This total is obviously based on Spencer Strider getting the start for Atlanta which holds the number down. But odds makers are basing that number on the full season Strider is having, not the June version of the Braves righty who has posted a 9.00 ERA this month. I think that spells trouble against this Phillies lineup that has gotten hot in June as Strider has cooled off, and they’ve been a top-5 team in batting average against righties all season.

But sign me up for the possibility of runs whenever Atlanta faces a lefty, which they’ll get in Ranger Suarez tonight. While Suarez has been great in his past few starts, facing this Braves team that’s unquestionably the best against lefties is a whole different task. Add in that Atlanta is crushing everything right now with 7.4 runs per game their past 15, and they should contribute heavily to getting this game over the total.

MLB (0.6 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 3.5 (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 6:05 PM CT on MASN

Speaking of teams that you can sign me up for against lefties, this is another great spot to back Washington without actually asking a last-place team to win a game. Because they’re solidly in the NL East basement and facing a brand-name team in St Louis, that only serves to hold down their isolated total. But I’m jumping on the value that creates here.

I think they get to Jordan Montgomery as they do pretty much every lefty. The Nats rank 4th in baseball for average, 3rd in scoring, and 3rd in weighted runs created against lefties this season, remarkable success for a team that just keeps on losing as expected. Montgomery and a below-average Cardinals bullpen aren’t likely to get wrecked by the Nats, but the number is just too good to pass up for this situation.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+130; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

I hate trying to catch a falling knife, which is the Pittsburgh Pirates right now after losing 7 in a row. But these teams are on too much of opposite trajectories, and I think it results in another lopsided loss for the Buccos tonight. All but one of those losses has come by multiple runs, and the Pirates are sporting a minus-3.6 average run differential over their past 12 games.

So injuries and natural regression seem to have caught up with Pittsburgh, but meanwhile the Cubs appear to be figuring things out. They’re 8-2 the past 10 games with a plus-2.5 average run differential, and also swept the Pirates as part of that stretch by a combined 28-11 score. The pitching matchup tonight is one we just saw in that series with Marcus Stroman giving Chicago a clear advantage. I think the trajectories for both teams stay the same here with a solid Cubs victory.

MLB (0.6 Unit) Texas Rangers/Chicago White Sox First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI

It’s all about the pitching matchup here between two starters that should create a pitcher’s duel early. Despite Texas having such an excellent offense, I see Dylan Cease containing them tonight. The Chicago righty has been elite at home lately with a 1.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP the past 4 home starts. He also has dominated this excellent Rangers offense, with their lineup only owning a cumulative .116 average and .371 OPS against him.

So if the strong Ranger bats can be kept somewhat quiet tonight, then the White Sox should also struggle in their weaker split against a righty. The Southsiders are a bottom-5 offense in almost every metric against right-handed pitching, and this is no ordinary righty they’ll face tonight. Nathan Eovaldi has been outstanding all season and even better on the road, posting a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in away games. That should create a low-scoring start to this one.

MLB (1.5 Unit) San Diego Padres/SF Giants Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on NBCS-BA

The home runs were flying out of Oracle Park last night on the back of a massive wind blowing into center field. That wind is still there for tonight and I think the scoring will stick around as well.

Something has clicked offensively for the Giants, and that’s the biggest reason I think we see plenty of scoring tonight. Not only are they on an 8-game winning streak with a sweep of the Dodgers, but they’ve gone over this total in 7 of those and are averaging 7.3 runs per game their past 13 overall.

Neither pitcher in this game inspires much confidence, especially San Fran starter Anthony DeSclafani who’s been having troubles at home. The Padres have good numbers against him in his career, and obviously have all the hitting talent in the world. The conditions and situation are set up for offense here, and this moderate total just isn’t accounting for it properly.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Matt Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings)

Carpenter has had an awful month of June, but this is a great spot for him to get back on track. He’s the Padre that Anthony DeSclafani has the longest history with, and it’s been an ugly one for the Giants righty. Carpenter has a career .448 average and 1.600 OPS against him, and DeSclafani has struggled with left-handed bats all year. The poor stretch by Carpenter has deflated his value, but boosted the return here to a juicy price that I’m buying in on.

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers/LA Angels Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:07 PM CT on TBS

It’s not often you see a game where Clayton Kershaw is starting have a total in this range. But that speaks to the offensive tear the Angels have been on lately, and I think the runs continue to pour in for this crosstown series.

While Kershaw is a legitimate Cy Young candidate at this point, he’s not that trustworthy on the road where his ERA more than doubles compared to home. He also has much shorter outings in away games, which brings the dumpster fire that is the Dodger bullpen into play. And I’m not impressed by Reid Detmers despite consecutive strong outings, so I think he runs into trouble against a Dodgers offense that is not their problem right now.

The Dodgers keep furthering their trends of being the best over bet in baseball, including on the road and after a loss. Smart money knows it and bet this total up from the opener, and a big wind blowing out of Angel Stadium should help push this game over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1352-1192 ATS (+69.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.