Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/16

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Oakland A’s Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

A Phillies lineup that’s finally gotten healthy and turned red hot as a result is where I’d expect most of the offense to come from here. Philly is scoring 5.7 runs per game in June, which is no coincidence considering the caliber of players they’ve gotten back to full health. It’s also allowed them to put a lot of left-handed bats in their lineup, which Oakland starter JP Sears struggles against with a .333 average allowed.

But even though the A’s have snapped back to reality after their win streak, I still wouldn’t count out their ability to put runs on the board tonight. The offense that fueled their surprise wins was based on finally figuring out right-handed pitching which they’ll see from Taijuan Walker tonight. Walker has had consecutive strong starts but they were at home, and the road is where he owns a 6.75 ERA. Favorable hitting weather in Oakland Coliseum should help both offenses to get over this total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays ML @ San Diego Padres (-115; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

Now that the Rays got their act together and put an end to Oakland’s 7-game reign of terror, they can focus on beating real baseball teams. That’s being somewhat generous to the Padres considering the expectations coming into this season, but I still like the matchup for Tampa here. I’m always interested in backing the Rays when Shane McClanahan takes the mound, as they’re 12-2 straight up in his starts.

Conversely, Yu Darvish has not really been what you’d expect for San Diego this season, and the Padres are only 6-6 when he takes the mound. It’s been rough for Darvish recently as he’s compiled a 6.15 ERA over his past 5 starts, and that’s been against some questionable offenses. Tampa is still the best in baseball for just about every metric against righties and I think they get to Darvish here. With McClanahan likely to be dealing, I think the Rays keep making the Padres look like a disappointment.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1348-1188 ATS (+69.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.