Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/15

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 5.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

I had some concerns about the Braves offense cooling off, but after 3 games in Detroit where they piled up 21 runs, I’m feeling much more confident. I’m always confident in them against a left-handed starter, which they’ll see today in Kyle Freeland.

Atlanta’s bats should stay hot for this one as Freeland’s 3.91 ERA is significantly outperforming his projected metrics. And the last time he went on the road to face a team that’s excellent against lefties he allowed 8 runs in 2 innings of work against the Rangers. The Braves punish lefty pitching more than any team, will also face a poor and worn-out Rockies bullpen, and should get over this team total as a result.

MLB (1 Unit) Chicago White Sox/LA Dodgers Over 8.5 (-125; Odds via Fanduel): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

The White Sox definitely found some offense last night in hanging 8 runs, and I think they’ll be back for more tonight. Even though they’ll face a right-handed starter which isn’t their preferred split, that starter is Michael Grove who’s been struggling to slow anyone down. Grove also doesn’t pitch deep into games, and that means Chicago will see more of the bullpen with the 2nd-highest ERA in baseball.

I’m also not buying that White Sox starter Dylan Cease has figured it out, as his two strong starts in a row have come against teams that really struggle against righties. That’s not the case with LA, as the Dodgers are top-5 against righties and should take advantage of Cease’s issues on the road. The Dodgers also tend to bounce back from losses with high-scoring games, owning the best over record in the league after a loss like last night. Both offenses are in advantageous spots and the wind is blowing out of Dodger Stadium tonight, so expect plenty of runs here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1346-1188 ATS (+68.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.