Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/15

Locks

MLB (1.2 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ Washington Nationals (-120): 6:05 PM CT on MASN

I’m sure everyone and their third cousin are trying to ride this Atlanta wave, so it’s definitely a public play. But I’m not scared yet, and actually think the Braves are a little underpriced today. I expected the moneyline and run line to both be getting inflated with a 13-game winning streak and 11-2 run line mark. However, it seems that the pitching matchup is holding down the number, and that’s a mistake.

Spencer Strider has been improving in every start for Atlanta since being moved out of the bullpen, and Braves backers shouldn’t worry about his inexperience. I also expect him to be pitching with a lead and getting plenty of run support tonight. That’s because the Braves bats get to punish Erick Fedde again, who owns an astronomical .494 ERA and 1.463 OPS against the Atlanta lineup. That should lead to another dominant performance by this red-hot team, so expect another easy Braves victory here.

MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 5.5 (-110): 6:07 PM CT on SN1

I’m extraordinarily confident that the Blue Jays are winning this game. But the price for backing them to do that in any way (moneyline, run line, first five innings) is far too excessive. I can sort of back them with this team total though, and avoid laying any heavy juice in the process. Against the Orioles and starter Bruce Zimmermann, that’s looking like a pretty safe bet.

Zimmermann has been getting absolutely wrecked lately, compiling a 9.47 ERA over his past 5 starts. Not surprisingly, the opposing team has gone over this team total in each of those games, averaging 7.8 runs. The Baltimore lefty has to face a Toronto lineup dominated by right-handed bats, which has gone over this team total in 14 of their past 19 games. José Berríos getting the start for the Jays is holding down the full-game total and therefore this number, so I’m grabbing that value and expecting big production from Toronto here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115): 6:45 PM CT on Bally Sports Midwest

Jack’s back. One of my favorite pitchers, Jack Flaherty, is finally getting on the mound for St. Louis tonight and is worth backing against the pitiful Pirates. But the moneyline tonight is a little too big because of Pittsburgh’s futility against St. Louis, and I prefer not to go run line with home teams. So I’ll lay the half run for the first five instead, especially since I don’t anticipate Flaherty to be allowed to pitch very deep into this game.

The Cardinals have been truly dominant against Pittsburgh this season, and that includes early on in games. St. Louis is 7-2 against the F5 run line in the season series so far, with an average margin of 2.3 runs. Plus, the Pirates are just 2-7 against the F5 run line in their current 9-game losing streak overall. Nothing about Pittsburgh scares me against St. Louis, in general, and I like the prospect of the Cards giving Flaherty strong support for his return.

MLB (1 Unit) San Diego Padres/Chicago Cubs Over 11.5 (-110): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

It’s hot, it’s humid, and there’s a massive wind blowing straight out of Wrigley Field tonight. That’s literally all you need to know for this game. So even though it seems like a high total, it’s really not if you factor in the weather conditions that heavily dictate totals for Cubs home games. Last night’s meeting saw these teams put up 17 runs in similar weather, and that was with two fairly decent starting pitchers.

That’s certainly not the case tonight as Ryan Weathers sees his first action of the season for San Diego, while Caleb Kilian makes his second-ever start in the big leagues for Chicago. The Cubs relievers also own the distinction of having allowed the most runs of any bullpen in baseball, so there should be plenty of scoring opportunity throughout tonight’s game. But mostly count on the big wind to help these teams get over the seemingly big total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 770-635 ATS (+83.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.