Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/14

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Boston Red Sox Over 10 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

Struggling starters, questionable bullpens, a small ballpark, and the wind blowing out – everything about this game is saying plenty of runs are coming. A lot of them should come from Boston, as the Red Sox face Austin Gomber who would’ve lost his starter job if the Rockies had any other options. His 7.57 ERA is not just a product of Coors Field, as his xFIP actually goes up in road games. With Boston strong against lefties, they should pile on the runs here.

But Boston’s own starter Garrett Whitlock doesn’t inspire much confidence, and puts Colorado in their far better split this season against a righty. With the Rockies actually scoring runs the past two games, their usual road woes aren’t as much of a concern and I definitely think they contribute here again. And with the past two games going extra innings, these already poor bullpens should help add more runs once the starters are pulled. It all adds up to double-digit runs tonight in my opinion.

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels/Texas Rangers Over 9 (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

I’m a little surprised that the Angels have scored 16 runs the past two nights in Texas, and I’m even more surprised that the Rangers have scored only 9 runs in those games. But I definitely like the potential for the Angels to continue their scoring while Texas picks it up, as the pitching matchup here should create runs.

Both starters are lefties, and that puts both offenses in their preferred split, with the Rangers being a top-3 offense in most metrics against lefties. Texas can line up with lots of left-handed bats as well, which Reid Detmers really struggles against with a .333 average and .928 OPS allowed.

And Andrew Heaney’s struggles at home where he has a 5.67 ERA should continue against this hot Angels offense. There’s a reason these teams are 4-1 over this total in the season series while averaging 13.8 runs per game, and the runs should come easily again tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds ML @ KC Royals (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

I’m a little late in hopping on the Reds bandwagon, but that doesn’t mean it won’t keep rolling along tonight. The pitching matchup isn’t one that I love tonight, as Cincy starter Ben Lively has hit the predictable regression after a strong month of May. But he’s still a righty, and that puts the Reds at an advantage as the Royals are one of the worst offenses in baseball for that split.

Cincinnati also benefits from facing Daniel Lynch tonight, a lefty that puts the Reds in their preferred split, plus they’ve been hitting a lot better on the road lately. That’s been the big factor in them going 13-7 straight up the past 20 games and 9-2 the past 11 on the road. With the A’s continuing to win you have to recognize the Royals as the worst team in baseball, going 4-16 in their past 20 games. The Reds are still not respected enough in the market though, making them a short price to back here, and I’m jumping in.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1345-1187 ATS (+68.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.