Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/14

Locks

MLB (1.3 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ Washington Nationals (-130): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network

This is the extent of the juice I’m willing to lay on any baseball bet. However, I see it as worthwhile given the situation here. There have been two pitching changes for Washington in this one, as Stephen Strasburg was sent back to the injured list, and now Josiah Gray has been scratched in favor of a minor leaguer.

I don’t know who Jackson Tetreault is, but I sure pity him having to throw his first pitch in the majors to Ronald Acuna Jr. tonight, followed by the rest of the red-hot Braves lineup. It’s mostly been hitting that has carried Atlanta to 12 straight wins with 10 of those by two-plus runs, but add in the fact that I can back Max Fried tonight, and I’m all in. The Braves ace has allowed just a .186 career average to Nats hitters and should hold them down enough for Atlanta to pull away and win comfortably.

MLB (1 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays Over 9 (-110): 6:07 PM CT on SN1

Overs in Baltimore Orioles games helped me to a profitable weekend, and now I’m going back to that well. Except this time their opponent is a team with one of the most reliable offenses in all of baseball. The past 18 games for Toronto have seen the Blue Jays average 6.9 runs per game, helping them to an 11-5-2 run over tonight’s total. They should continue to tee off here against Orioles starter Jordan Lyles, who has allowed the Jays lineup to post a .311 average and 1.115 OPS against him.

Bad pitching is what has caused Baltimore’s current run of 16-5-3 over this total, and I expect that to be a major factor again tonight. But I wouldn’t discount their ability to plate some runs of their own against Yusei Kikuchi. The Toronto lefty has had plenty of control and other issues that have contributed to his past 3 starts getting over this total. He’s been struggling against right-handed bats, which constitute the majority of Baltimore’s lineup, so they should be able to chip in some runs here. All that should add up to an easy over on a number I expected to be 10 or higher.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 768-635 ATS (+81.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.