Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/12

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays/Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Tampa starter Jeffrey Springs has been mostly excellent this season, as his 1.62 ERA and 0.92 WHIP clearly show. But the Twins are just hitting everything right now, and it’s reached a point where they should be an auto-play to the over. Notably, their five games against Tampa this season have gone 4-1 over this number while averaging 10.6 runs. And after three consecutive series against AL East opponents, their games with that division are 15-4 over this number.

Maybe most impressive about yesterday’s high-scoring game is that the Twins did it without Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, or Gio Urshela playing. I have a feeling they’ll need those bats today though with Cole Sands returning to the mound. The young Twins righty has allowed four runs in both his very short starts, and figures to allow more today. Hopefully the Twins can slug their way to another victory, but I’ll count on the slugging to continue in general and get this game over a low total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/KC Royals Over 9.5 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

I’m continuing to target these teams for overs because the general conditions continue to be well-suited to scoring. In five of the six meetings this season, one team has reached at least six runs, and it’s truly attributable to the poor pitching. We’ll see more of that today from the starters, as Dean Kremer and Brad Keller get to compare their inflated ERA numbers.

Kremer is finally off the injured list and only has one start this season, but he was a reliable target for over bettors last season and should be again. We know the relief behind him is fairly brutal as well, so the Royals should get theirs at the plate today. And Keller has finally regressed to the mean after starting strong this year, compiling a 6.31 ERA over his past six starts. Hot and humid weather in Kansas City will allow the ball to compress and jump off bats, so these bad pitching staffs should continue to allow runs in bunches.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers @ SF Giants ML (+115): 3:05 PM CT on MLB Network

Don’t pay the Dodger tax on this game, as books dangle a relatively short line for perhaps the most public team in baseball.

That’s especially true with Los Angeles losing five of the past six starts by Julio Urias, once one of their most reliable starters. Whether it’s Urias getting shelled or the Dodgers not getting him run support, those losses can’t be ignored at this point and it’s not worth paying a price to back him today. Run support has been the major issue plaguing Giants starter Carlos Rodon, as his last five starts have turned into San Fran losses despite him pitching fairly well. He also has an excellent history against the Dodgers, allowing a career .145 average and .463 OPS to that stacked lineup.

After beating Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw the past couple nights, the Giants are looking for a rare sweep of one of baseball’s best squads. With the pitching edge flipping to their side, I’ll back San Fran to pull it off at this plus-juice return.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 764-631 ATS (+80.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.