Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Minnesota Twins Over 8 (-110): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’ll be at this game tonight, and the safest bet in the world was that I’d have action on it. But I think this is a sneaky opportunity to cash an over on a total being held down by the presence of Gerrit Cole.
The Yankee ace has been his typically dominant self for most of this season, but the Twins have an opportunity to plate some runs against him. Where Cole has somewhat struggled this season is against lineups dominated by right-handed bats with power. Minnesota would be wise to throw as many right-handed hitters (which they certainly have available) as possible into the lineup tonight, which should get them at least a couple of runs.
If the Twins manage that, then the Yankees will probably handle the rest. They should be able to extend Dylan Bundy’s recent struggles, especially in a bounce-back spot after last night’s unusual power outage. Interestingly, the Twins are 11-3-1 over this total in games against the AL East, and I see another coming tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Kansas City Royals Over 9.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC
When bad teams face off with bad pitchers on the mound, runs get scored. That’s really just a subjective observation from years of doing this that I can’t quantify, but I can definitely quantify the ugly stats for the starters in this game.
Baltimore’s Jordan Lyles has shown flashes this season, but his 6.03 road ERA should factor in tonight, and the past 8 games he’s started have seen an average of 10.7 runs. Kansas City’s Kris Bubic has calmed down after an abysmal start to the season but he still carries a 9.33 ERA, and I simply don’t trust pitchers with a 9.33 ERA to do anything but allow runs.
It’s also worth noting that the general conditions are ripe for scoring when these teams meet. These pitching staffs have allowed the 4th- and 9th-most earned runs, the 3rd- and 4th-most hits, and have the 3rd- and 4th-highest on-base averages allowed. There should be hits and baserunners aplenty in this game, so that should translate to an over on this fairly reasonable total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 758-629 ATS (+79.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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