Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/08

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics -2.5 First Half (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ABC

Much can and has been made of Boston’s ability to bounce back off losses – never dropping consecutive games this postseason, and only once since the start of March. Plenty can also be made of Golden State’s ability to win road playoff games going back many years. So that’s not instilling much confidence in me for the full-game result, but I still like Boston’s ability to start strong in tonight’s game.

The Celtics put their first-half strengths on display in Games 1 and 2, leading by two points and then trailing by two points, respectively. That’s not too much of a shock given they were 2nd in the NBA this season in average first-half margin. They also led the league in points allowed before halftime, so this team knows how to start strong.

Boston is also 13-7 ATS on the first-half number this postseason, while Golden State is 7-11 ATS, including 2-5 on the road. The Celtics returning home to TD Garden – one of the most raucous playoff environments in all of sports – should give them an added boost to continue those strong starts and take a solid lead into halftime.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 Assists (+115):

The plus-money return on this prop immediately caught my attention, especially with how correlated it is to Boston’s success. My gut says the Celtics will win tonight, and if they do, that’s good news for Tatum’s assist prop. He averages 7.1 assists in their playoff wins, with at least 5 dimes in 12 of those 13 games. However, it drops to just 4.3 assists in their losses. I’d expect the Warriors to go all-in on furthering Tatum’s shooting struggles, making him more likely to rack up the assists tonight and get over this prop although I wouldn’t be surprised if he went over on points as well.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Celtics/Warriors Over 213.5 (-110):

This one comes down to a hunch. Last game was played at such a gross pace for Boston that I don’t it see repeating tonight, especially after game one’s 228 point outburst. I expect Boston to feed off the crowd here and we all know Steph Curry and the Warriors probably won’t get held under the century mark themselves. And besides, what’s more fun than an over on a Wednesday night?

Bonus Bet (0.25 Units) Marcus Smart Over 13.5 Points (-110):

Marcus Smart is dealing with an ankle injury that initially looked much worse than it ended up being thankfully. Smart is a crowd favorite though and I know being at home will energize him immensely for tonight. This number is pretty low for a guy that is capable of hitting a couple of his 3’s while also having the ability to get to the free throw line. Small play on this one, but a play nonetheless.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Under 3.5 (-110): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

If he keeps going at this rate, Nestor Cortes is going to be right there in the Cy Young race, so get your tickets at +700 in now while you can. Unfortunately for the Twins, I see that Cy Young campaign continuing at full speed tonight at Target Field.

It doesn’t matter whether he’s home or away, Cortes has the same 1.50 ERA for both splits. He’s only allowed 11 total runs in his 10 starts this season, and the opposing team has gone under this total in 7 of them. The Twins have been decent against lefties this season, but Cortes is on another level right now and should hold Minnesota down here.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): NY Yankees -1.5 (-110)

If the Twins aren’t going to get to 4 runs against the tortuous nemesis Yankees, then they aren’t going to keep this one close. New York's decades of dominance over Minnesota remained on display last night, as the Yankees became the first team to reach 40 wins this season in a 10-4 drubbing. I don’t see the Twins getting much done against Cortes, but the Yankees should continue to rake against Chris Archer tonight.

The Bronx Bombers are crushing right-handed pitching this season, ranking near the top of baseball in every power metric. Archer owns a 5.00 ERA at home this season and has struggled more with right-handed batters, which is where New York can stack up power. The Yanks are combining elite pitching and hitting better than any team so far this season, something they’re used to doing to the Twins no matter what. Unfortunately, that should carry them to another comfortable win here tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 754-627 ATS (+78.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.