Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/07

Locks

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+100)

Oakland A’s @ Atlanta Braves (-240): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South

The Athletics are doing exactly what you’d expect from a team that sold off all its assets and is held together by duct tape -- they've dropped 12 of their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the Braves are finally doing exactly what you’d expect from a defending World Series champion: actually reel off some wins in succession. Atlanta's current 6-game win streak is the longest of the season by far, and should easily continue tonight.

The pitching matchup is doing no favors for Oakland in this one. While Cole Irvin has had his moments, his 5.09 road ERA is troubling. As a lefthander, he will get hit hard by a Braves lineup that continues to crush lefties. Conversely, the A’s have been awful against right-handed pitchers like Atlanta starter Kyle Wright. I’m just not seeing Oakland’s weak offense keeping up with what Atlanta will produce offensively. That should get the Braves an easy win here to kick off this parlay.

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-250): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet SW

These teams have already played a lot this season, with the series knotted at 5 games apiece. But Houston had defended home field until last night, when they had a predictable loss in the first game home after a long road trip. They should bounce back here in this one behind the ageless Justin Verlander, and facing a Mariners starter they’ve had plenty of success against.

Going back to last season, Seattle is just 1-5 in Chris Flexen’s starts against Houston, finally breaking through in the last meeting. That game saw Verlander have his worst outing of the season. But I expect him to bounce back here since he has a strong history against the Mariner lineup. Houston has the 3rd-best home record in baseball and is 13-6 off a loss, so I’ll back them and their ace to close this parlay.

MLB (1 Unit) San Francisco Giants Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 8:45 PM CT on MLB Network

Books obviously expect Carlos Rodon to hold down a Rockies lineup that’s been putrid on the road, giving us a low total and therefore a relatively low Giants team total. But this is all about fading German Marquez and the relievers that will come in for him. Marquez should see his 6.89 road ERA continue to grow tonight as he faces a lineup well-suited to crush him. The Rockies righty has been particularly awful against left-handed bats, allowing a .336 average and .942 OPS.

That’s bad news against a Giants lineup full of pop from the left side of the plate, and buoyed by a big wind blowing out of Oracle Park tonight. Marquez has also allowed the opposing team to get over this number on his own in 5 of his past 7 starts. But if the Rockies pull him, a bullpen that’s allowed the most runs in baseball, has the highest ERA, and is 2nd-highest in WHIP and xFIP will allow even more scoring. Thank the low total for this correspondingly-low isolated number which should be easily attainable for San Francisco.

Degenerates

MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

It’s tough to find a less compelling matchup on the board tonight, and that’s saying something. Unless of course you’re a fan of Tarik Skubal like I am. The Detroit lefty is the real deal, and has been locking teams down for most of the season. In his 10 starts, Skubal has allowed 3 or fewer runs 8 times including 6 outings with no earned runs. He’s been excellent at holding down weak lineups like Pittsburgh, who is just 23rd in scoring against lefties on the year. While this is a low number, I’ll count on Skubal and a Tigers pen that’s 2nd in ERA to hold the Pirates down here.

Tiny Nick is 753-626 ATS (+78.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.