Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/06

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 5.5 (-110): 7:10 PM on ESPN+

The Twins definitely cooled off the red-hot Blue Jays over the weekend, but tonight’s AL Central foe is a far different one. At least Toronto stayed pretty hot at the plate, scoring 21 runs in the 3-game set against Minnesota. That’s what I expect to carry over into tonight’s game against a pitching staff this powerful lineup can mash against.

With lefthander Daniel Lynch going for Kansas City, the powerful right-handed bats for the Jays should capitalize. Toronto hasn’t gotten to face much lefty pitching this season as teams try to avoid all that power from the right side of the plate. But the Jays are hitting lefties much better, and Lynch has struggled far more with right-handed hitters. And if Toronto can chase Lynch, they’ll face a bullpen that owns the 3rd-highest ERA in baseball.

A quick check of the weather report shows perfect conditions in Kansas City with a breeze blowing out tonight. So with Toronto 8-3 over this total in their past 11 games, I see more runs coming for them in this favorable matchup.

MLB (1 Unit) Boston Red Sox Team Total Over 4 (-110): 8:38 PM CT on MLB Network

After going over their respective team totals (and this number) during a 3-game sweep in Oakland, I’m looking to continue backing Boston as they move down the coast. Warmer weather and a breeze blowing out of the park tonight will definitely benefit this powerful Red Sox lineup, especially against a pitcher that’s looking vulnerable lately.

It really seemed like the Thor we all remember was back when Noah Syndergaard began the season with some impressive starts. But he accumulated a 5.40 ERA in May, and he’s had to be yanked extremely early from 2 of his past 3 games. One of those starts last month was against these Red Sox at Fenway, where a Boston lineup that had yet to take off scored exactly 4 runs. This team also knows how to hit Syndergaard, as they have a collective .354 average and .817 OPS against him.

Let’s not discount the straight-up collapse this Angels team is in the midst of either. They’ve now lost 15 of their past 18 games, allowing the opponent to meet or exceed this total 14 times. With questions around their starter, a bullpen that’s 24th in ERA, and facing a powerful lineup, I see that continuing as Boston gets over this number.

MLB (0.5 Unit) New York Mets Team Total Over 3.5 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

This isolated total is just too low to pass up for a team with as much talent at the plate as the Mets have. As the league’s leader in hits, average, and on-base percentage, plus being the 2nd-highest scoring team, the Mets are fully capable of getting over such a low number. They’ve found their way over this particular number in 13 of their past 18 games, a stretch where they’re averaging 6.7 runs per game.

Books also seem to be giving a little too much credit to Blake Snell here, whose performance hasn’t quite lived up to the name recognition. In three relatively short outings this season, Snell has accumulated a 4.80 ERA and is yet to face a lineup as potent as New York’s. While San Diego is not known for getting into high-scoring games, the Mets are simply a team that’s too good at the plate right now. On such a low number I’ll look for New York to keep the bats hot and get over this total once again.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 751-625 ATS (+78.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.