Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/05

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Golden State Warriors Over 215.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ABC

These teams hit 228 points in Game 1, and still left a lot of room for scoring improvement. That was a game where Jayson Tatum went 3 of 17 from the floor, a severely down performance that he will bounce back from. Game 1 also saw a 4th quarter meltdown by Golden State where, as a top-10 4th-quarter scoring team, they managed just 16 points. While it’s true that Boston likely won’t shoot as well as they did in that game, the positive mean regression in those other areas should keep things high-scoring tonight.

The precedent is certainly there, as the Warriors have seen 7 of their last 8 home games in the NBA Finals go over the total. Golden State is also averaging 117 points per game at home in this year’s postseason, while Boston is putting up 109.7 in road games. These offenses are strong enough to overcome the excellent defense of both teams, there are elite scorers all over the court, and I see that bringing another over in this one.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors -4 (-110)

It would be absolutely cataclysmic for Golden State’s title hopes if they lose this game, which is fairly obvious to say. But I just don’t see them losing again, and neither do the historical trends. In NBA Finals history, home teams that drop Game 1 have bounced back to go 14-3 in the next game. For the playoffs in general, teams in that spot are 9-1 ATS in the past 10 instances, and you can go back decades to find about a 60% mark in their favor.

The Warriors in this postseason are 4-0 off a loss, outscoring the opponent by 14.5 points per game. I also mentioned above that you’d have to expect some shooting regression to show up for Boston. The Celtics shot 35.9% from deep this season, so drilling 7 straight to start that anomaly of a 4th quarter is not something you’re likely to see again. With a few adjustments and their backs against the wall, expect Golden State to take care of business tonight.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Andrew Wiggins Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)

The handicap for this one hasn’t changed one bit from Game 1, and neither has the number. It’s easy to forget about Wiggins given the stars around him, even for a defense as elite as the Celtics have. That allowed him the opportunity that I expected it to, and I expect it will continue tonight. Wiggins has averaged 25.6 on this number in his past 6 games and should get over it once again tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Oakland A’s Over 7.5 (-110): 3:07 PM CT on MLB Network

Frankie Montas has been mostly excellent for Oakland again this season, but his stats might be a little inflated. Looking at his game log, I don’t see a single opponent that’s top-10 in scoring this season, at least not until today. Boston is 5th in runs scored, 4th in OPS, and 3rd in slugging percentage, all of which have been on display the past two games in Oakland. But with the pitcher’s park reputation and cooler weather, books have refused to hang a total higher than this for the series.

The Red Sox have done most of the work in getting both games over this number, but they might not need to do as much today. I’ve been extremely skeptical of Rich Hill all season, and regression finally came for the aging lefty. His past 3 starts have seen him collect a 9.82 ERA, and he could be in for more today. Oakland hits lefties significantly better this season and is due to find something at the plate. Additionally, Hill’s starts this season are 6-3 over today’s total, so expect both offenses to click enough to cash another over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 750-622 ATS (+79.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.