Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/02

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins -0.5 First 5 Innings (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I don’t think Bailey Ober is getting the credit he deserves, especially not from the betting market. A short line on the Twins today is based on doubt that Ober can continue the start he’s had to this season. But that’s creating a nice plus-juice return on their F5 run line, and I believe that Ober can definitely continue it today.

Ober’s underlying metrics and expected ERA/FIP numbers are actually solid, so this should not be looked at as a fluke. He’s also up against a Guardians team that is one of the worst against righties, ranking 29th in OPS and weighted on-base average, and 30th in weighted runs created. The big righty held Cleveland scoreless through 7 innings in his first start against them, and can do the same here.

A Twins offense that’s been hot lately should be able to at least get a couple across against Aaron Civale, who is making his first start since early April tonight. Minnesota is in their preferred split against a righty, and are now up to 5th in MLB for weighted runs created against right-handers. At this price I’ll bank on Ober being undervalued and the Twins bats keeping it rolling.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

Garrett Whitlock has alternated good and bad starts for the Red Sox, and should be due for a bad one against the Rays tonight. It’ll be a repeat performance after Tampa tagged him for 5 runs in 5 innings of work the first time he faced them, albeit down in Tampa Bay. But the small park at Fenway should help a Rays team that just keeps crushing right-handed pitching as the league leader in most metrics. The Rays also easily cashed this over in 3 of the previous 4 meetings with Boston this season, and I see their offensive success continuing tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies ML @ KC Royals (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

Jordan Lyles for Kansas City might be the worst starting pitcher in baseball, and that’s saying something in this day and age. He certainly has the worst results for his team, as the Royals are winless in his 11 starts this season. That’s pretty hard to do, but it’s made easier by how bad Lyles has been on the mound, posting an 8.89 ERA this month alone.

Backing Colorado away from Coors Field is dangerous as their hitting falls off a cliff, but Lyles and a poor KC bullpen are so generous it shouldn’t matter. The Rockies are in their vastly preferred split here against a righty starter, and have arguably their best pitcher going. Chase Anderson has been excellent since getting traded from Tampa, and faces a Royals lineup that’s bottom-5 in every metric against righties. If the Rockies are going to look good on the road this is the spot to do it, and I’ll back them at this solid price.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1315-1155 ATS (+71.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.