Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/6

Locks

NBA - Nets/Mavericks over 233.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

Let’s be honest, nobody looks at a matchup of these two teams, with their assortment of stars, in a national TV game, and says give me the under. I wouldn’t want to, and I don’t think you should.

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game having dropped three straight games, all of which fell under the total. Those poor results from the Nets are keeping this total lower than I would have assumed, but a matchup with a Dallas Mavericks defense that’s 19th in efficiency can help right a lot of those wrongs.

The Nets off a loss are also an excellent bet to light up the scoreboard with a 14-8 record to the over, and when laying points on the road they’re 14-6 to the over. This game should be all about Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving showing off on national TV, and Brooklyn’s disinterest in defense should allow Luka Doncic to do whatever he wants in response. This total was on the rise early, so follow the smart money and grab the over.

Bonus Bet: The Mavericks have been pretty awful at home this season, just 12-20 ATS, and are still missing Kristaps Porzingis for this game. Brooklyn also owes them for a 17-point home loss in February where KD and Kyrie did not play. I think that spells trouble against a Nets team motivated by a fight for their playoff seeding and that revenge factor, so I’ll lay the 3 points with Brooklyn here.

Degenerates

NBA - Lakers @ Clippers First Half -4 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

The Los Angeles Lakers have gotten themselves into a position where they don’t really need this game, but they definitely need their next game. That one comes tomorrow in Portland and will have plenty of play-in implications.

Given the litany of Laker injuries and the scheduling spot, I would not be surprised to see them put less than a competitive effort into this game. They may even rest Anthony Davis. I would expect the Los Angeles Clippers to take advantage though and step on their rivals from across the hall at Staples early.

In the last meeting – a game where the Lakers were shorthanded – the Clippers got out to a 15-point lead at the break and coasted down the stretch. The Clippers should be at full strength and not load-managing anyone since they don’t play again until Sunday. So while I think they can probably cover the full game side of 8 points, I’d rather count on the maximum effort early with this shorter number.

Tiny Nick is 243-158 ATS (+75.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.