Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/4

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers/Golden State Warriors 1st Half Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

The other Game 2’s that have been played at very low scoring levels has me a little concerned, but I’m mostly looking at how these teams played and could have played in their opener. That was a fairly up-tempo game, but one where the Lakers were awful from deep, and the Warriors extremely pedestrian from inside the arc. They still managed to get over the full-game total, and crushed the first half with 129 points. If I know the Warriors, they’ll be out for blood in this game, and that generally means everything goes in for them early. Add in some improved 3-point shooting for LA and I see plenty of points before halftime.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Steph Curry Over 30.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

He got mad and took matters into his own hands after a disappointing Warriors performance in Game 6 against Sacramento, dropping 50 to win the series. Tuesday was another fairly disappointing game for him and his team where he only went 10-of-24 from the field. I’ll play the narrative angle here and expect a massive game from Curry in a desperation spot for the Warriors.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Klay Thompson Over 23.5 points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I’m going to keep this one short and just say the “Splash Brothers” are due for an explosion. Klay Thompson put up 25 shots in Game 1 leading to only 25 points but the usage rate is more what I’m interested in. It took 36% shooting in Game 1 to clear this number so I see it only going up from there tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Andrew Wiggins Over 5.5 rebounds (-120; Odds via DraftKings)

Andrew Wiggins has gone over this total in his last 4 games despite Kevon Looney going over 20 rebounds in back to back games. There should be plenty of meat on the bone for the 6’7 Wiggins to get well over this number in what should be another 38+ minute output for Wiggins.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Draymond Green Over 6.5 Rebounds (+105; Odds Via DraftKings)

A four rebound performance in Game 1 of this series is bringing this total down a bit, especially for the juice. Draymond did a whole lot of running in Game 1 but not much else. If there is one thing I know about Draymond it’s that he will hustle and his ego will recognize his stat line has been rough so I’m rolling with his rebounding over here as well.

MLB (1 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ Colorado Rockies (-105; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on SportsNet RM

The Brewers haven’t looked all that spectacular in their visit to Denver yet, but they’ve faced left-handed starters in both games. Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league against lefties, so seeing right-hander Connor Seabold today will be a good change for them.

While they aren’t elite against righties either, Seabold is nothing to be afraid of as he’s a reliever making a spot start here. That means the Colorado bullpen that’s allowed the 4th-most runs in baseball will see even more action.

And on the other side is the most surprising member of the Brewer rotation in Wade Miley. His 1.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP has been built up against some impressive opponents, all of which are better against lefties than Colorado. Miley hasn’t gotten great run support so far, but I see that changing today against poor Rockies pitching, and should result in an easy Brewers win.

MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Over 9 (-110, Odds Via Caesars): 5:10 PM CT on NESN

When the ball starts to fly at Fenway, overs become a more than entertaining play. These two teams have combined for an average of 11.7 runs per game so far this series with no game going under the total of 9. Kevin Gausman on the mound for Toronto is keeping this number down but I see Toronto putting up enough to get this over with minimal help from Boston. We know how short the Green Monster is at Fenway so add that onto Brayan Bello’s 6+ ERA and we should see double digits once again in Boston.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m targeting Jesus Luzardo, who had an excellent start to the season, for continued regression in this game. The Miami lefty has been giving up considerably more production in his past 4 starts, and now has to face an Atlanta team that feasts on left-handed pitching. The Braves rank 3rd in OPS, 3rd in weighted on-base average, and 4th in weighted runs created against lefties this season, continuing their excellence in that split from last year. The overall total and consequently this isolated number is held down by several overvalued factors, but I expect Atlanta to produce enough to get over their number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1245-1096 ATS (+70.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.