Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/27

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics -8 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN

So, one more NBA playoffs blowout, and then maybe we can get a competitive Finals? I really don’t see why not, especially with Miami running on fumes and Boston having looked excellent in their other close-out scenarios this postseason.

The Heat might be able to lean on hustle and desperation to keep this a game for a while, but ultimately I just don’t see them having enough to stay competitive throughout tonight. Injuries have become a massive factor as seemingly every Heat wing player is dinged up, but particularly Jimmy Butler who is shooting 7 for 32 the past two games. And the regression monster has hit the Miami backcourt hard in general, turning hot perimeter shooting ice cold.

Boston just seems up to the task tonight as well, and should eventually overwhelm the Heat here. The Celtics are 3-0 straight up and ATS in close-out games so far in the playoffs, and who can forget their thorough dismantling of Milwaukee in the last two games of that series? Much like last night with the Warriors, this game seems like an inevitably lopsided win by Boston, so I’ll lay the big number.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (+105)

Have you seen the Heat shoot? It’s been a brick-fest the past two games with Miami missing 60 and 64 shots in Games 4 and 5, respectively. That creates a lot of rebounding opportunity and Brown has been capitalizing, going over this number in 4 of the 5 games this series and averaging 6.9 boards in the playoffs overall. If Miami keeps missing, then Brown should keep cleaning up those misses, and to get this number at a plus-juice return is impossible to pass up.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+125)

San Francisco Giants -215 @ Cincinnati Reds: 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

Why do I get the feeling the Reds aren’t scoring 20 runs again today? It might be the fact that it was their highest scoring output in 23 years. Or the fact that, you know, it’s still the Reds. Cincinnati is still 24th in average and 23rd in OPS, and it gets even worse against left-handed pitching.

That means Carlos Rodon should be the perfect pitcher to deliver that regression for Cincy here, as he’s been holding down much better lineups most of the year. Rodon is particularly effective against left-handed bats, only allowing a .074 average and .268 OPS to that side of the plate, which happens to be where the Reds have most of their power. Cincinnati hasn’t even announced a starting pitcher yet for this game, but it doesn’t matter to me. The Giants should be an easy winner here to start this parlay.

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins -180: 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Twins aren’t going to lose consecutive home games to the Royals, let’s be reasonable. Kansas City finally bounced back after 6 straight losses – 3 of which were to Minnesota – but should return to their usual ineptitude today. In addition to the Twins' offense being due to return to form, I really think the pitching matchup benefits them here.

The Twins just put up a 9-spot in Kansas City on Saturday when Brad Keller started, and his ERA doubles in road games. That should help with the bounce back they need at the plate after a few lackluster games and provide enough support for Bailey Ober to hold the Royals down again. Ober put in 5 innings of 1-run pitching on Sunday, proving that the Royals just don’t have the left-handed bats to take advantage of his weakness. If Minnesota can avoid a bullpen letdown tonight, they should take this one easily and close a nice plus-money parlay return.

MLB (1 Unit) Boston Red Sox Team Total Over 5.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Apple TV+

The Red Sox just sandwiched a 1-run game in between two 16-run games, and I’m fairly confident the 16-run outbursts are actually the lesser of the outliers. This team has undoubtedly found it offensively, as they’re currently on a 10-5 run over this total while averaging 7.5 runs per game in that stretch. If you put poor pitching in front of Boston right now, their bats are going to crush it.

Poor pitching has defined Baltimore for about as long as I can remember, and Kyle Bradish might be in deep trouble for this start. While he held Boston to just 2 runs in 6 innings a month ago, that was before Boston got it going at the plate. And on the season, Bradish is allowing a ridiculous .357 average and 1.127 OPS to right-handed hitters. The powerful righty bats that Boston can line up should punish Bradish and the weak Baltimore 'pen, getting them over this total with ease.

Degenerates

MLB NY Yankees ML @ Tampa Bay Rays (+105): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun

I can’t really quantify why I like the Yankees here. As usual, this team is getting bit by the injury bug, knocking a couple of important bats out of their lineup. But it’s still a potent one regardless, and that’s something Rays starter Jeffrey Springs hasn’t really seen much of this season. In his only start against a competent scoring team, the Tampa lefty struggled against the Angels in an 11-3 loss for the Rays.

I’m probably mostly going against Tampa Bay here on instinct after seeing them struggle against some bottom-feeder teams lately. The typical Rays of years past have dominated weak opponents, so they’ve moved down in my book. The Yankees are proving to be the bully of the AL East, and with another strong starting pitcher in Jameson Taillon going tonight, I’ll back them at this plus-juice return.

Tiny Nick is 740-610 ATS (+80.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.